{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-6d840c1e7ff2", "docSlug": "70f833659b03", "documentTitle": "Samsara Inc. (IOT)", "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital", "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2023-09-21 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "pageNumber": 68, "pageCount": 88, "prevPage": 67, "nextPage": 69, "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "function": "expose_contradiction", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide uses red text within the quote to emphasize specific phrases that support the activist's thesis of management lowering expectations.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "callout_box", "data_table" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-6d840c1e7ff2/68", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-6d840c1e7ff2", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-6d840c1e7ff2.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-6d840c1e7ff2#slide-68", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Investors don't need to take our word for it. Samsara CFO Phillips has already said that the future is increasingly cloudy as he attempted to manage down investor expectations for the Company's future earnings outperformance.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-64d3-706e-a454-ca99cfafe6f6", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.045, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.175 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Investors don't need to take our word for it. Samsara CFO Phillips has already said that the future is increasingly cloudy as he attempted to manage down investor expectations for the Company's future earnings outperformance.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "1f14a46f-c2ff-475f-a92c-554f0908e675", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.36, "w": 0.738, "x": 0.25, "y": 0.335 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "On the conservatism in the FY '24 guide comment that was made in the shareholder letter and the prepared remarks. Really, what I am saying is if you go back to like FY '23, we initially guided 30% to 32% revenue growth and we ultimately finished that 52% growth. So that entailed beats of 8%, 7%, 9%, 9% in Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4, what we are seeing for FY '24 we are starting the guidance at 28% to 30%. We will not have those same level of beats in FY '24. So, it is less conservative than that initial FY '23 guide. There is a lot of obviously macro uncertainty. If we see a lot of those headwinds, we won't need to reduce our guidance, that is why we call it de-risked, we do not think we will go below 20% to 30%. If we don't see those headwinds, we will have the opportunity to move that guidance up throughout the year, similar to what we did in FY '23 but we do not expect the same magnitude of beats. And so that's really the point that I was trying to drive home, more in that kind of low to mid single-digit revenue beats on a quarterly basis if we do not see any sort of macro uncertainty.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "9fd76215-1fee-4e8c-b2e2-b6119f98ec83", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "On the conservatism in the FY '24 guide comment that was made in the shareholder letter and the prepared remarks. Really, what I am saying is if you go back to like FY '23, we initially guided 30% to 32% revenue growth and we ultimately finished that 52% growth. So that entailed beats of 8%, 7%, 9%, 9% in Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4, what we are seeing for FY '24 is we are starting the guidance at 28% to 30%. We will not have those same level of beats in FY '24. So, it is less conservative than that initial FY '23 guide. There is a lot of obviously macro uncertainty. If we see a lot of those headwinds, we won't need to reduce our guidance, that is why we call it de-risked, we do not think we will go below 20% to 30%. If we don't see those headwinds, we will have the opportunity to move that guidance up throughout the year, similar to what we did in FY '23 but we do not expect the same magnitude of beats. And so that's really the point that I was trying to drive home, more in that kind of low to mid single-digit revenue beats on a quarterly basis if we do not see any sort of macro uncertainty. — Samsara CFO Phillips", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-64d3-706e-a454-cc5baacb59a5", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.26, "x": 0.012, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Samsara Q4 FY2023 earnings call,", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "4069e372-878e-4fb1-b480-1f9b348e31e8", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.035, "w": 0.976, "x": 0.012, "y": 0.3 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Samsara Commentary on Earnings \"Expectations\"", "attrs": null, "subkind": "data", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "3a065ef3-557e-4214-8f48-c4d314e5e458", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.025 }, "kind": "title", "text": "We Believe CFO Phillips' Warning Investors Not To Expect Earnings Beats Is An Ominous Sign", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "c4d70327-a290-40a3-8f48-12aa9f3fe515", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "ceo-quote-contradiction", "slug": null, "matchId": "b29f3f31-ae2f-4f92-87ef-19d7d4e838be", "evidence": "The slide uses a direct quote from the CFO to contradict previous performance expectations.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }