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  "documentTitle": "Samsara Inc. (IOT)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management",
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  "presentationDate": "2023-09-21 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide uses a two-part table structure: annual fiscal year data and quarterly breakdown to estimate churn.",
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      "text": "Assuming Samsara's LTV:CAC was 9x before declining to 7x in FY2023, we estimate that: (1) Samsara's churn has nearly doubled since FY2020, (2) Its current quarterly churn of nearly 8% is relatively unattractive, (3) Samsara's YoY growth in new ARR added has slowed to historic lows, and (4) The Company's churned ARR relative to new ARR has increased dramatically, from 14% in FY2020 to 46% in FY2023.",
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      "text": "Assuming Samsara’s LTV:CAC was 9x before declining to 7x in FY2023, we estimate that: (1) Samsara’s churn has nearly doubled since FY2020, (2) Its current quarterly churn of nearly 8% is relatively unattractive, (3) Samsara’s YoY growth in new ARR added has slowed to historic lows, and (4) the Company’s churned ARR relative to new ARR has increased dramatically, from 14% in FY2020 to 46% in FY2023.",
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      "text": "ARR Churn: 46%",
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      "text": "We attempted to solve for ARR churn, a metric that Samsara does not disclose. Admittedly, our analysis involves estimates since: (1) We don't know the exact LTV:CAC metric, just that it was over 8x prior to FY2023, and (2) The Samsara metric definition uses a quarterly churn metric averaged over four quarters. Despite those caveats, our analysis reveals very high absolute churn and unsettling trends regarding Samsara's ARR churn.",
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      "text": "Source: Spruce Point Research, Samsara SEC filings",
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      "text": "Spruce Point's Derivation of ARR Churn Metrics From Samsara's LTV:CAC Definition and Disclosure",
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      "text": "Quarterly breakdown of ARR, Estimated Churn, Churned ARR, New ARR Added, and YoY Growth in New ARR Added.",
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      "text": "Backward Engineering Samsara's LTV:CAC Uncovers Troubling Churn Trends",
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