{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-4fdf89a4b224",
  "docSlug": "bcbeb3ac7b21",
  "documentTitle": "Progyny, Inc. (PGNY)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2023-02-07 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 74,
  "pageCount": 100,
  "prevPage": 73,
  "nextPage": 75,
  "slideType": "expose_contradiction",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 20,
  "notes": "Includes a red box highlighting the 'Miscarriage Rate' row in the table and a red underline in the Milliman report excerpt.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "callout_box",
    "data_table",
    "paragraph"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-4fdf89a4b224/74",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-4fdf89a4b224",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-4fdf89a4b224.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-4fdf89a4b224#slide-74",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.28,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.83
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "PGNY’s data collection practices are inconsistent with its definition of a miscarriage right on the Company’s website?",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "4a7a0fe8-46d3-4101-8822-a5df79ce3d9c",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.17
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Viewing PGNY’s outcomes data on an historical basis, we are highly troubled by the sharp increase in miscarriages, a result PGNY has not addressed publicly. Moreover, PGNY’s actuary, Milliman, highlighted issues with the Company’s potential under-reporting of miscarriages..",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "8bb5ade1-dd50-4f41-a3f8-419e4dbd9f11",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Miscarriage Rate: 13.9%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-70f2-7016-81d6-0b948d4ece21",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.66,
        "x": 0.17,
        "y": 0.65
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Progyny’s current IVF live birth rate is calculated by subtracting the IVF miscarriage rate from the IVF pregnancy rate, while the national benchmarks are based on actual reported live birth rates. In addition to clinical documentation of a miscarriage, if a member received a subsequent ART treatment, Progyny assumes the member’s prior IVF cycle did not result in a live birth. Progyny’s live birth rate calculation may be impacted by miscarriage data and may be overstated if miscarriages are under-reported. This is particularly important for IVF cycles that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2021, as Progyny data would only capture miscarriages through March 28, 2022. However, the chance of having a miscarriage after 13 weeks is 1.3% and unlikely to impact the miscarriage rate significantly.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "066ecd20-9976-46ee-9627-3cb75348c1f5",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.6,
        "x": 0.35,
        "y": 0.83
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "A miscarriage, or “spontaneous abortion,” refers to the loss of a pregnancy before 20 weeks and occurs in 15 to 20 percent of all pregnancies. Most miscarriages occur during the first trimester but can also occur later on in the pregnancy.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "53574518-d66e-474d-89d4-6cc8727666ac",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.66,
        "x": 0.17,
        "y": 0.6
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Excerpt From Milliman Report On Issues With PGNY’s Live Birth And Miscarriage Calculations",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "b8a273d9-7524-4c27-b516-8b836cd6bb51",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "Progyny’s live birth rate calculation may be impacted by miscarriage data and may be overstated if miscarriages are under-reported. — Milliman Report",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Authority citation",
      "toolSlug": "authority-citation",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-70f2-7016-81d6-0633f8267958",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.5,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.97
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: PGNY 10-Ks for 2019, 2020, and 2021, PGNY website, Milliman Report, PGNY website",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "e0075dfd-c345-421e-b4f3-b38b79c654d6",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.2,
        "w": 0.66,
        "x": 0.17,
        "y": 0.35
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "PGNY Historical Reported Outcomes Data table",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "85164c4a-4988-4d8c-a935-4f02ac5c8abc",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.05
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "PGNY Has Experienced A Sharp Increase In Miscarriages At The Same Time That Its Miscarriage Measurement Has Been Called Into Question By Its Own Actuary",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "25c003ba-d856-4aff-9c26-4e72f5d3da49",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "fraud-exposure",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "dc17388a-f601-4434-9b0f-8454ea76b490",
      "evidence": "The slide explicitly links data discrepancies to potential misreporting and actuary concerns.",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 100,
      "from": 61,
      "beatId": "470ad4dd-317c-46c8-baea-551e7894c3b9",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "Resolution",
      "beatSlug": "mountain-resolution",
      "evidence": "The document concludes with a detailed analysis of PGNY's valuation and downside risk.",
      "position": 4,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Resolution",
      "parentBeatSlug": "resolution"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 100,
      "from": 61,
      "name": "Mece Breakdown",
      "slug": "40-mece-breakdown",
      "bestFor": "Problem structuring, ensuring completeness, strategic analysis",
      "matchId": "db636762-5e9e-4cb6-8376-e0923a5a5438",
      "evidence": "The document presents a detailed analysis of PGNY's valuation and downside risk.",
      "position": 3,
      "objective": "How do PGNY's issues impact its valuation?",
      "structure": "The Whole -> Category A (distinct) -> Category B (distinct) -> Category C (distinct) -> Complete Coverage",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Divide a complex topic into mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive categories"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}