{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-4fdf89a4b224",
  "docSlug": "bcbeb3ac7b21",
  "documentTitle": "Progyny, Inc. (PGNY)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2023-02-07 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 43,
  "pageCount": 100,
  "prevPage": 42,
  "nextPage": 44,
  "slideType": "revenue_buildup",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 15,
  "notes": "The slide uses a waterfall-style logic to adjust reported revenue growth for one-time items.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "callout_box",
    "data_table",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-4fdf89a4b224/43",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-4fdf89a4b224",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-4fdf89a4b224.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-4fdf89a4b224#slide-43",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.18,
        "x": 0.76,
        "y": 0.55
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "$118M of tailwinds in FY22 that will not likely repeat in FY23",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "074f01ec-e24d-46d4-b12e-9eec919ae63d",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Excluding the estimated $110M net tailwind to revenues that will not repeat in FY23, sell-side estimates look wildly optimistic.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-2b61-7647-86f0-290215e84574",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "revenue growth: $110M",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-2b61-7647-86f0-2d0e41f75c0e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.18,
        "w": 0.86,
        "x": 0.1,
        "y": 0.13
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "As noted, PGNY's 2022 selling season will result in the addition of 1.2M lives to start 2023, the same number of lives added to begin 2022. We calculated PGNY's anticipated 2022 dollar revenue growth based on its January 9th guidance, $286M, and then exclude the impacts of four quantifiable dynamics we do not believe will repeat in 2023. These include the impacts of early client starts in 2H 2022, revenue growth from Amazon and Google, pharmacy pricing increases, and the Menapor shortage. We believe this provides a framework to assess the achievability of current consensus 2023 revenue estimates. Excluding the estimated $110M net tailwind to revenues that will not repeat in FY23, sell-side estimates look wildly optimistic.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "6c9acf52-6117-4ee3-a967-d36b6bf9f6de",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.86,
        "x": 0.1,
        "y": 0.91
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Sources: Bloomberg, Spruce Point Research, PGNY Press Release...",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "46858b83-6549-4808-bb48-a1062ac55977",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.55,
        "w": 0.65,
        "x": 0.1,
        "y": 0.35
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "FY22E Dollar Revenue Growth, Spruce Point FY22 Core Revenue Growth Calculation, FY23E Revenue Growth Attribution",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "98bf02be-dfd9-4e10-b5ae-bb1fb5ab5198",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.06,
        "w": 0.65,
        "x": 0.31,
        "y": 0.03
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "We Believe Three Major Benefits To 2022 Revenues Are Unlikely To Recur In 2023",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "bc534742-0cd5-42c7-aeec-05e6ff77c776",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "revenue-bridge",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "2195bbf3-28ea-4e21-87cc-6b3fcb4c1691",
      "evidence": "The table structure decomposes revenue growth into core and non-recurring components.",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 60,
      "from": 41,
      "beatId": "5b6f79c3-fa08-43d8-9381-f563badaa4cd",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "Climax",
      "beatSlug": "mountain-climax",
      "evidence": "The document highlights significant concerns about PGNY's business model and competitive position.",
      "position": 3,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Turn",
      "parentBeatSlug": "turn"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 60,
      "from": 41,
      "name": "Cost Of Inaction",
      "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction",
      "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation",
      "matchId": "5bfedd73-ff97-471a-8921-89fcfab889c8",
      "evidence": "The document highlights significant downside risk to PGNY's stock price.",
      "position": 2,
      "objective": "What are the consequences of not addressing PGNY's issues?",
      "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point",
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}