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  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-2f79335352dd",
  "docSlug": "81a891429a42",
  "documentTitle": "Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management",
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  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2023-01-10 00:00:00",
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  "pageNumber": 13,
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  "notes": "Uses a table-like structure to juxtapose contradictory statements from company filings and executive commentary.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Extremely wide range!",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Meaningless and not quantified in SEC filings or on conference calls",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Therefore, on what basis are investors to believe anything the CEO claims about long-term revenues?",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Spruce Point warns that the CEO's recent exuberance and bold long-term revenue claims are not backed by any reported backlog that should give investors strong confidence. In fact, the Company's fine print explicitly warns that sales are difficult to forecast and dependent on orders received and fulfilled in the quarter. Therefore, on what basis are investors to believe anything the CEO claims about long-term revenues?",
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      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "\"While we had greater than normal backlog during certain periods of fiscal year 2022, historically, our net sales are difficult to forecast because we do not have sufficient backlog of unfilled orders or sufficient recurring revenue to meet our quarterly net sales targets at the beginning of a quarter. Rather, a majority of our net sales in any quarter depend upon customer orders that we receive and fulfill in that quarter.\" — SMC Risk Factor. \"This emerging segment represents a vast long-term opportunity for us, and our design win momentum and backlog continues to grow, but short-term quarter-to-quarter results can fluctuate depending on the timing of new customer adoptions and qualification cycles.\" — CFO Weigand. \"Looking ahead, I anticipate fiscal year '24 revenue may reach the range of $8 billion to $10 billion, considering the current economic headwind may be lasting for many quarters. As we continue to gain IT market share with the best rack scale plug-and-play IT total solutions, I believe we will soon become a $20 billion revenue company.\" — CEO Charles Liang.",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: SMCI 10-K and Q1 2023 and Q3 2022 Conference Call",
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      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Comparison of SMCI Risk Factor, CFO Weigand, and CEO Charles Liang statements.",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Suddenly, SMCI Has Long-Term Revenue Visibility!",
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  "frameworks": [
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      "evidence": "Juxtaposition of official risk disclosures against CEO revenue guidance.",
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      "evidence": "Detailed critique of SMCI's financials and business practices",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Development",
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      "matchId": "2c33d724-8eb1-49f3-959c-655148a6eca2",
      "evidence": "The document highlights several contradictions in SMCI's financials and business practices",
      "position": 0,
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