{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6",
  "docSlug": "4ee8cca82f1a",
  "documentTitle": "Oatly Group AB (OTLY)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Ben Axler",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2021-07-14 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 9,
  "pageCount": 124,
  "prevPage": 8,
  "nextPage": 10,
  "slideType": "executive_summary",
  "function": "summarize",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 8,
  "notes": "This is a classic activist short-seller thesis slide, using a list-based structure to present multiple pillars of a bear case.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "bullet_list",
    "data_table"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6/9",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6#slide-9",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Our intermediate price target for Oatly is $6.40 - $14.90 (30% - 70%) lower, with up to 100% long-term downside as investors come to grips that Oatly will likely never make money in the notoriously fickle and deflationary food industry.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a878-0322ca474724",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.21,
        "w": 0.22,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.77
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Beyond Stretched Valuation Likely To Compress As Supply Challenges Persist, Market Share Is Lost, And Goals Missed 30% - 70% Intermediate & 100% Long-term Downside",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "15ea9cc5-f0b5-4f46-8c5f-0fecf03b909b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.18,
        "w": 0.22,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.35
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Holes In The China Growth Story... Conflicting Stories And Evidence of Construction Behind Schedule",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "27a8467f-17d0-44c1-982f-30ad6847faf0",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.22,
        "w": 0.22,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.54
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "When The Oat Milk Category Matures, Upside Through Research and Development Has Been Stripped Away By the Founder",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "41f932b3-014e-4648-bd65-ef210fdd1e38",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.18,
        "w": 0.22,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.16
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "U.S. Channel Checks Show Market Share Loss In Milk And New Entrants Into Yogurt and Ice Cream. New Signs of Discounting",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c9a543cd-5df3-450f-8748-c2f27446345e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "downside: 30% - 70%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a878-07027ec8ef85",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.82,
        "w": 0.74,
        "x": 0.25,
        "y": 0.16
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Detailed supporting arguments for each of the four points listed on the left.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "f4154320-d1e5-4759-8bca-7e6f3f5b5242",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.12,
        "w": 0.7,
        "x": 0.28,
        "y": 0.02
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Evidence Shows Oatly Losing U.S. Market Share And China Expansion Is Behind Schedule. Extreme Valuation Leaves Little Room For Error",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "f8326c46-2ede-4cb6-a97a-56daa57b97b4",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Executive summary",
      "slug": "executive-summary",
      "agent": null,
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "4a2ccc26-b585-43c3-8ff9-12b8aabc2d67",
      "evidence": "The slide summarizes the main points of the report, including downside risk.",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "list-presentation",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "19d4c56e-9304-475b-afba-826c6029cf6c",
      "evidence": "Four distinct pillars of argument presented in a structured list format.",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 20,
      "from": 5,
      "beatId": "6f92ef2f-caf1-4aa6-bfbd-d0dfd603c24c",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "The Monster",
      "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-monster",
      "evidence": "Introduction of key concerns with Oatly's financial reporting and sustainability claims.",
      "position": 0,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Hook",
      "parentBeatSlug": "hook"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 14,
      "from": 7,
      "name": "Aha Moment",
      "slug": "03-aha-moment",
      "bestFor": "Data-heavy sections, research findings, analytical arguments",
      "matchId": "338864f3-4e05-4000-9925-b3f294fd83d9",
      "evidence": "Employee interviews and financial data analysis reveal concerning patterns.",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "What are the implications of Oatly's problematic financial reporting?",
      "structure": "The Problem/Question -> What the Data Shows -> The Insight",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Establish a tension, present data, then deliver the insight that changes everything"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}