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  "documentTitle": "Oatly Group AB (OTLY)",
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  "authorName": "Ben Axler",
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  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2021-07-14 00:00:00",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Oatly entered the U.S. market in 2016/17 exactly when share was lost in Sweden",
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      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Sweden: Oatly's Share vs. Alternative Milks Over Time",
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      "text": "market share: 53%",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Warning: Before getting too excited about the Oatly story, consider what has happened in its home market of Sweden. Oatly's prospectus says that in Sweden it had 53% market share of sales in total alternative dairy products in 2020, according to Nielsen. However, it doesn't say much about what its market share was leading up to 2020. According to Euromonitor, another source it cites, Oatly's share started falling in 2016-2017, at the same time frame it shifted to international expansion into the U.S., China and other European markets. We also observe that Oatly stopped disclosing Swedish market share results in foreign filings after 2016.",
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      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "In our home market of Sweden, Oatly products had a 53% market share of sales in the total alternative dairy products non-milk based category as of 2020, according to Nielsen. The success achieved in our home market, in terms of brand awareness and new product development, has become a clear \"north star\" for future international expansion.",
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      "text": "\"In our home market of Sweden, Oatly products had a 53% market share of sales in the total alternative dairy products non-milk based category as of 2020, according to Nielsen. The success achieved in our home market, in terms of brand awareness and new product development, has become a clear \"north star\" for future international expansion.\" — Oatly IPO prospectus",
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      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Oatly Stopped Disclosing Market Share In Foreign Filings",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Timely Pivot To International Markets And A \"Growth Story\" To Sell Stock",
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      "evidence": "Analysis of Oatly's market positioning and competitive threats.",
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      "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point",
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