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  "docSlug": "4ee8cca82f1a",
  "documentTitle": "Oatly Group AB (OTLY)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Ben Axler",
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  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2021-07-14 00:00:00",
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  "pageNumber": 42,
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  "notes": "The slide uses a red warning box to draw attention to the contradiction between Barclays' capex modeling and management's guidance.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Warning: Barclays has Oatly's total capex at $1.3 billion from 2021 – 2023E. They are modeling a 1.5 billion liters of capacity, or an additional 100m liters above Oatly's guidance. However, that extra capacity is $300m more than Oatly's maximum estimated capex of $1.0 billion. Therefore, Barclays is estimating $1.13 per liter of capacity addition, or 77% higher than our estimated historical cost of $0.64 per liter! Despite Barclays disagreement with management on capex costs, it has a $34 per share price target on the stock ($1 below the street high $35/sh).",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Therefore, Barclays is estimating $1.13 per liter of capacity addition, or 77% higher than our estimated historical cost of $0.64 per liter!",
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      "text": "Oatly's 2021E-23E Projected Capex Range: $750 - $1,000m",
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      "text": "Capex: $1.3 billion",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "To date, the key constraint on OTLY's growth has been capacity. That is, we believe OTLY is selling every liter it produces, is having to limit its distribution expansion, and is having difficulty with service levels at existing customers, as it is simply unable to keep up with demand. Currently, OTLY has three production facilities and a capacity of ~350mm liters. That said, OTLY plans to aggressively ramp up its capacity over the next several years, with a target of expanding its capacity by ~4x to 1.5bn liters in 2023 as it its production footprint count increases to nine facilities.",
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      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Barclays Modeling 1.5bn liters by 2023, With Total Capex At Approximately $1.3 billion",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Capex Being Now Talked Higher Than Management's Estimates (Cont'd)",
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