{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-09b0063ec30e", "docSlug": "f01a5a9839a9", "documentTitle": "Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS)", "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital", "authorName": "Ben Axler", "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2021-02-16 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "pageNumber": 56, "pageCount": 77, "prevPage": 55, "nextPage": 57, "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "function": "expose_contradiction", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 8, "notes": "Uses a 'quote-vs-quote' structure to highlight potential management credibility issues.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "callout_box", "quote_block" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-09b0063ec30e/56", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-09b0063ec30e", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-09b0063ec30e.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-09b0063ec30e#slide-56", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Leidos management is keen to promote organic growth, and is now talking about accelerated organic sales growth into 2021... but can it be trusted?", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-64cd-733b-aca7-2e6f22d6c784", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.12, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.31 }, "kind": "other", "text": "Roy Stevens Investor Day May 14, 2019", "attrs": null, "subkind": "unclassified", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "73571e6b-0791-4f60-a539-0b52cf8418a9", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.12, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.57 }, "kind": "other", "text": "CFO Reagan Credit Suisse Conference Dec 2, 2020", "attrs": null, "subkind": "unclassified", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "e8e464f3-bcfe-4da6-82e7-169549eab24a", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Leidos management is keen to promote organic growth, and is now talking about accelerated organic sales growth into 2021... but can it be trusted?", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "0ea6b672-fff2-44a5-8c54-f6959e1161f0", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.83, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.31 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Well, obviously, NGEN is a needle mover for us, right? That's a $400 million a year in revenue... we think we can take markets that are growing at 3% and 4% and produce 5-or-better percent organic growth.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "pull-quote", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "363a6145-261c-4afb-81cd-c7393708e52a", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.83, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.57 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "So for example... that will give us a core growth rate of 4% to 5% organic. Layer on top of that... that should yield us -- the larger programs, that you yield is another 2%. So that racks up to easily a 10% to 12% organic growth for next year.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "pull-quote", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "7cba3b37-33a0-47c8-8e54-dcc3e8e10e59", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Well, obviously, NGEN is a needle mover for us, right? That's a $400 million a year in revenue. That's -- I was talking to some folks in the back, there is a lot to play out on something like that, but that certainly provides us kind of step function potential upside. And that is why we think we can take markets that are growing at 3% and 4% and produce 5-or-better percent organic growth. So it is things like NASA NEST, also another big annual revenue, it is NGEN, it is those kind of big step functions that allow us to really outperform the market.\" — Roy Stevens, Investor Day, May 14, 2019; \"So for example, if you think about it, on contract growth and the growth of kind of the smaller contracts that range from $10 million to $500 million, that will give us a core growth rate of 4% to 5% organic. Layer on top of that things like the ramp-up of the NGEN program that can yield us between 2 and 3 points. There's going to be a couple of points undoubtedly from the carryover of backlog work from COVID-19. That can be as much as $250 million, $270 million. And then other new business wins like the STAMP program that is still under protest and RHRP and others, that should yield us -- the larger programs, that you yield is another 2%. So that racks up to easily a 10% to 12% organic growth for next year.\" — CFO Reagan, Credit Suisse Conference, Dec 2, 2020", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-64cd-733b-aca7-33a5a0d900c4", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Management Promoting Organic Growth, But Can It Be Trusted?", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "277e3e9e-3bdb-4bf3-98ca-75848c78d724", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "ceo-quote-contradiction", "slug": null, "matchId": "583c9424-8ec8-463f-9ff4-0ab856807419", "evidence": "Contrasting two management statements to imply inconsistency or lack of credibility.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }