{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-069a37f5f517",
  "docSlug": "9c995cfa26e4",
  "documentTitle": "Porch Group Inc (PRCH)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Ben Axler",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2021-04-08 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 63,
  "pageCount": 63,
  "prevPage": 62,
  "nextPage": null,
  "slideType": "valuation_table",
  "function": "show_valuation_bridge",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 24,
  "notes": "The slide uses a variant valuation approach to argue that the equity could be worthless.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "paragraph",
    "valuation_table",
    "numbered_list",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-069a37f5f517/63",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-069a37f5f517",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-069a37f5f517.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-069a37f5f517#slide-63",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Once it becomes evident Porch’s recent strategy shift will be challenged to succeed and losses mount, absent new funding, the equity could be worthless.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-203e-77ad-a6b4-838424ac4367",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.55,
        "w": 0.38,
        "x": 0.61,
        "y": 0.0033
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Our variant valuation is driven by a few variables: 1) Our 2x multiple reflects our belief Porch is a low quality lead generation business... 2) Financial guarantees and leases... 3) Share count includes an additional 3m of dilution...",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "bedee75f-62e5-4a6d-a630-014c0ccc81b9",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Price Target: $5.06/sh",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-203e-77ad-a6b4-851ec9e87c47",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.96,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.00165
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "After 10 years, we believe Porch still hasn't found a business model that is proven to generate cash flow. We believe peer acquisitions made closer to 2.0x forward sales, and the sale of the CEO's predecessor vertical software strategy at 2.2x sales, are indicative of what the business is worth in the intermediate term. Once it becomes evident Porch's recent strategy shift will be challenged to succeed and losses mount, absent new funding, the equity could be worthless.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "2aadb989-6dfc-4a45-bbd9-9fd88b1d5b1b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.06,
        "w": 0.96,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.92
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Downside based on $17.34/sh. 1) Per company's recent investor presentation disclosure, assuming warrants exercised. 2) Porch's investor presentation has consistently listed $40m of debt even prior to year end 2020. As of 12/31/20 according to its 10-K p.89, principal payments required total $50.8m",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "851fb695-c473-44ee-879e-7fcc1e72d63d",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.55,
        "w": 0.58,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.0033
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Valuation table showing Low Price (2.0x) and High Price (4.0x) scenarios for Porch.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "valuation",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "b1891455-52f7-46ae-9628-360e4c1bdf5e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.7,
        "x": 0.28,
        "y": 0.02
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Spruce Point Estimates 50% – 70% Intermediate Downside, With 100% Long-Term Downside",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "ecb2e0ae-50f4-409a-a3c8-32ec6276e064",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "valuation-bridge",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "062cb4b7-f712-4861-ac5b-2693e24e90d7",
      "evidence": "The table explicitly bridges from revenue multiples to equity value per share by subtracting debt and liabilities.",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 63,
      "from": 53,
      "name": "Cost Of Inaction",
      "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction",
      "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation",
      "matchId": "ded5ab14-378e-4cef-901d-b63a102a8079",
      "evidence": "The deck presents a clear and detailed valuation and downside case for Porch",
      "position": 2,
      "objective": "to present a valuation and downside case",
      "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point",
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}