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  "docSlug": "a458f84d7f69",
  "documentTitle": "Forescout Technologies (FSCT)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Ben Axler",
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  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2020-05-13 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "Uses a 'before-after' style comparison of a historical event vs a hypothetical scenario to imply management deception.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Q3 FY19 Preannouncement: Initial Consensus, Sales: $102.0M; Revised Sales Estimate: $91.1M; Disappointment: -10.7%; Stock Price Response: -37.3%",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "FY20 Q1 / Full-Year Guide: Consensus, Sales: $78.1M / $377.4M; Illustrative Guide: $62.0M / $355.0M; Miss (Unannounced): -20.6% / -5.9%; Stock Price Response: ???",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "If conscious of the full extent of the revenue headwinds of which management appeared to be aware, would Advent have still been willing to purchase Forescout for $33 per share, just one quarter after the stock fell as low as ~$25 after a posting a top-line miss similar to what it would have posted on the Q4 call?",
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      "text": "revenue guidance: -20.6%",
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      "text": "If conscious of the full extent of the revenue headwinds of which management appeared to be aware, would Advent have still been willing to purchase Forescout for $33 per share, just one quarter after the stock fell as low as ~$25 after a posting a top-line miss similar to what it would have posted on the Q4 call?",
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      "text": "When management announced the deal on Feb 6, it also cancelled its earnings call scheduled for later that day. It instead released its Q4 results immediately upon announcing the deal, disclosing a sales figure which came in 4% below Q4 guidance and consensus estimates of $95M. However, management chose not to disclose the guidance that it planned to issue on the call – figures that would have disappointed Q1 and full-year FY20 consensus by 21% and 6%, respectively, and which would have revealed management's expectation that Q1 sales would have contracted year-over-year. Prior to Q3 FY19, an earnings preannouncement which saw management cut its Q3 sales estimate by 9% sent the stock tumbling by nearly 40% in a single day. What might a >20% Q1 guidance miss have done to the stock had the deal not been completed prior to the call?",
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      "text": "Financial data table for Q1 2020 estimates",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Big Guidance Miss Likely Would Have Been Material To The Stock – And To The Deal Price?",
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      "evidence": "Spruce Point presents its case for why Advent should reconsider the deal.",
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