{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ef240a9cc70a",
  "docSlug": "c3be1f268cc3",
  "documentTitle": "Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc. (PBH)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Ben Axler",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2020-06-30 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 120,
  "pageCount": 122,
  "prevPage": 119,
  "nextPage": 121,
  "slideType": "preempt_rebuttal",
  "function": "preempt_rebuttal",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 24,
  "notes": "The slide uses red boxes to highlight specific consensus figures that the author deems unrealistic.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "paragraph",
    "data_table",
    "callout_box",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ef240a9cc70a/120",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ef240a9cc70a",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ef240a9cc70a.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ef240a9cc70a#slide-120",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.19,
        "x": 0.79,
        "y": 0.635
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Margin stability in the face of increasing competitive pressures and having to spend more and more on promotions and marketing seems overly optimistic",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "6d8be624-dee1-4b20-a4f7-89ea459207d9",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.19,
        "x": 0.79,
        "y": 0.365
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "With organic revenue growth consistently disappointing and pressures intensifying, there is no basis to project revenue will miraculously change course",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "bb9d437e-6950-4c58-9a2a-943942e10e91",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "With organic revenue growth consistently disappointing and pressures intensifying, there is no basis to project revenue growth will miraculously change course",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87ee-c920a213b160",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "revenue growth: 7.3%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87ee-ce9ff097fc44",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.11,
        "w": 0.96,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.17
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Our research shows flat revenue and stable margins are optimistic at best. With consumption growth of 2%, lack of pricing power and increased competition, we view the company's 2-3% revenue growth guidance as unattainable. Combined with a rising cost structure, we believe PBH's organic earnings will experience an unpreventable terminal decline. We expect revenue to decline and margins to contract.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "88c67dde-a926-499a-9a04-a72c131d5269",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.15,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.96
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Wall Street estimates",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "3b9ceec2-2f59-4a9d-acce-ff1f9e2b8f86",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.48,
        "w": 0.74,
        "x": 0.04,
        "y": 0.34
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Consensus vs Spruce Point Revenue and EBITDA projections for FY 2019-2022E",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "e4941f4e-cdbf-4d45-b15c-c610027f02cd",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.04,
        "w": 0.39,
        "x": 0.305,
        "y": 0.045
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Optimistic Analysts' Estimates",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "0be5b747-00d7-477a-b943-46699131a525",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Storytelling: audience calibration",
      "slug": "audience",
      "agent": "storyteller",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "9f14345f-92ac-411f-a680-0c953419fef9",
      "evidence": "Our research shows flat revenue and stable margins are optimistic at best.",
      "confidence": 0.7
    },
    {
      "name": "Thesis archetype",
      "slug": "thesis-archetype",
      "agent": null,
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "c0fc18d6-e8d3-488f-bb94-1294b3c5b2b6",
      "evidence": "We view the company's 2-3% revenue growth guidance as overly optimistic.",
      "confidence": 0.7
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "preempt_rebuttal",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "918e026a-65d5-405c-9c1c-3760720232e9",
      "evidence": "The slide explicitly challenges consensus analyst estimates to preemptively argue against the company's guidance.",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 122,
      "from": 11,
      "beatId": "fc4ac38d-48bf-454d-9d50-344d1705ba33",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "Expose Contradiction",
      "beatSlug": null,
      "evidence": "The majority of the document is dedicated to exposing contradictions and concerns in Prestige Brands' financials, operations, and governance.",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": null,
      "parentBeatSlug": null
    },
    {
      "to": 122,
      "from": 10,
      "beatId": "91479d45-6cb5-49fc-9f03-ea82d8e93c6b",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "Evidence",
      "beatSlug": "evidence",
      "evidence": "The document provides extensive evidence to support its claims, including financial data, comparisons to peers, and testimonials.",
      "position": 3,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": null,
      "parentBeatSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 122,
      "from": 118,
      "name": "Cost Of Inaction",
      "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction",
      "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation",
      "matchId": "ce715e34-cfa4-425f-bf00-d5c0c907d6c4",
      "evidence": "The document concludes with an emphasis on the significant downside risk, estimating a 40%-60% decline in Prestige Brands' stock price.",
      "position": 2,
      "objective": "To emphasize the downside risk",
      "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}