{
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  "docSlug": "c665ec3b53b5",
  "documentTitle": "Amcor plc (pro forma Amcor-Berry Global combination) (AMCR)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Ben Axler",
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  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2020-03-10 00:00:00",
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  "pageNumber": 18,
  "pageCount": 95,
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  "slideType": "valuation_table",
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  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 24,
  "notes": "The slide uses a bridge-style table to reconcile company-reported Net Debt/EBITDA (2.9x) to the analyst's adjusted figure (3.3x).",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "The downgrade reflects slower-than-expected deleveraging following Amcor's acquisition of Bemis. Key Assumptions: “Revenue at around USD13.5 billion for FY20, increasing by low single-digits over FY21-FY23”",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "The downgrade reflects slower-than-expected deleveraging following Amcor's acquisition of Bemis.",
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      "text": "Net Debt/EBITDA: 3.3x",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Amcor presents a potentially misleading view of its leverage by not including capital leases, and not clearly displaying how much cash is restricted for legal disputes, overdrafts and/or working capital needs. The Company says its leverage is 2.9x Net Debt / EBITDA, but we estimate leverage is closer to 3.3x. Amcor was recently downgraded by Fitch in February 2020 from BBB+ to BBB, yet it expects revenues to increase low single digits in the coming years. We believe this forecast is already proving to be overly-optimistic.",
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      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "Key Assumptions: “Revenue at around USD13.5 billion for FY20, increasing by low single-digits over FY21-FY23” — Fitch Credit Review",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: EBITDA and Leverage per Amcor earnings press releases. 1) Cash reduced for $13.5m held with Brazilian courts. In addition, its estimated that $150m is restricted for working capital and liquidity needs. See: Fitch Credit Review",
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      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Table reconciling Company Promoted EBITDA and Leverage to Spruce Point Adjusted figures.",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Amcor More Levered Than It Appears And At Risk of Further Downgrade Towards Junk",
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      "evidence": "The deck presents tangible new evidence of Amcor's cash liquidity challenges.",
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      "structure": "The Symptom (Visible) -> The System (Hidden) -> The Root Cause",
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