{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-e0497bacd3c2", "docSlug": "44aa04154472", "documentTitle": "Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN)", "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital", "authorName": "Ben Axler", "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2020-04-09 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "pageNumber": 73, "pageCount": 84, "prevPage": 72, "nextPage": 74, "slideType": "preempt_rebuttal", "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "Uses ICL epidemiological models to argue against a V-shaped recovery for elective dental procedures.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "callout_box", "line_chart" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.95, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-e0497bacd3c2/73", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-e0497bacd3c2", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-e0497bacd3c2.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-e0497bacd3c2#slide-73", "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.43, "x": 0.54, "y": 0.79 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Case counts will reaccelerate as governments relax economic restrictions, potentially forcing them to implement them once again", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "287d7356-74ea-416d-9059-ecb3105ce9a7", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.19, "x": 0.32, "y": 0.79 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "...but any lifting of those restrictions would allow case counts to reaccelerate", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "3c7dd432-bcba-49b1-b49a-ab7153e553b5", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.43, "x": 0.54, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "ICL Case Study: We will see waves of rising case counts as restrictions are intermittently relaxed / reintroduced", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "54d707cc-497f-4b2f-80ee-35d4f3cb49d4", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.19, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.79 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Economic restrictions limit case counts for as long as they remain in place...", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "5ac3fe40-cefb-42d0-bb30-0c11ef4e9fb7", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "ICL Case Study: As soon as restrictions on human interaction and economic activity are lifted, cases of coronavirus are likely to reaccelerate", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "8605d28f-73b4-4944-ba84-9d7f555037ea", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "If the disease itself does not dissipate for another 18 months - regardless of when retail, transportation, and other sectors begin to normal - will people really be willing to return to the orthodontist for an elective procedure?", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-0391-77f4-a9e9-0ed7f1ad8719", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.28, "w": 0.43, "x": 0.54, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Weekly ICU cases", "attrs": null, "subkind": "line", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "3145c6e5-cdb9-4ba7-b09a-5f2d94595805", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.28, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Critical care beds occupied per 100,000 of population", "attrs": null, "subkind": "line", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "f44dc00f-62b6-485e-8254-b0959a3eef58", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.89 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "If the disease itself does not dissipate for another 18 months – regardless of when retail, transportation, and other sectors begin to return to normal – will people really be willing to return to the orthodontist for an elective procedure?", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "23862e2d-2d58-49e3-a181-3218d8f6ed55", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Of late, ALGN shares have traded up on broader market optimism that the economy could begin to return to normal sooner than expected. However, investors should bear in mind that not all industries will return on the same schedule...", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "284b5269-a375-4ae5-bdfc-687ae3c01c14", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Unfortunately, some of the most credible studies on the likely trajectory of the pandemic - including the Imperial College London (ICL) study which most western nations are using to inform their action plans - predict that the disease could continue to linger for at least another 18 months at least.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-0391-77f4-a9e9-110e479abfb6", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "If The Disease Persists In Any Scale, When Will People Feel Comfortable Returning To The Dentist?", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "e24134be-1df9-4cde-b205-960a596ec586", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "causal-chain", "slug": null, "matchId": "db949977-9e84-4c2a-992f-5e034bf66a8b", "evidence": "The slide links government policy to case counts and subsequently to consumer behavior/stigma.", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 84, "from": 41, "beatId": "422ae0e1-bf81-40de-97fd-5008b09953d5", "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution", "beatName": "Solution (Provide relief)", "beatSlug": "problem-agitate-solution-solution-provide-relief", "evidence": "The document presents Spruce Point's short sell opinion and argues that the stock is poised for significant downside.", "position": 2, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Resolution", "parentBeatSlug": "resolution" } ], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }