{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-dbf69e8285f9",
  "docSlug": "c97bc876ffb7",
  "documentTitle": "LHC Group, Inc. (LHCG)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2020-01-15 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
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  "pageNumber": 39,
  "pageCount": 41,
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  "nextPage": 40,
  "slideType": "preempt_rebuttal",
  "function": "preempt_rebuttal",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 18,
  "notes": "The slide uses a table of analyst ratings to contrast market consensus with the activist's bearish thesis.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Widespread bullishness for LHCG's stock rests on the perception that management will continue to capitalize on a roll-up strategy with which Spruce Point detects overwhelming execution problems.",
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      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Price Target: $146",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "With all but two analysts rating LHCG a “buy,” the sell side is unsurprisingly exceedingly bullish on the stock. However, it assigns LHCG an average price target of $146, just 3% above current levels. Widespread bullishness for LHCG’s stock rests on the perception that management will continue to capitalize on a roll-up strategy with which Spruce Point detects overwhelming execution problems. We believe that this valuation is misinformed due to the market’s drastic misunderstanding of LHCG’s true organic growth, underlying EBITDA, and FCF profile, all reinforced by significant obfuscations and ad hoc adjustments. With the stock trading at both an all-time high price and all time-high valuation, we believe that the stock’s risk / reward profile skews significantly to the downside.",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Bloomberg. 1. Based on share price as of 01/14/2020, end of day",
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      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Broker, Rating, Price Target table for LHCG",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Widespread Bullishness Ignores Weaknesses Hidden Underneath Superficial Growth",
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      "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution",
      "beatName": "Solution",
      "beatSlug": "problem-agitate-solution-solution-provide-relief",
      "evidence": "The valuation and downside risk slides present Spruce Point's solution and conclusion.",
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      "from": 3,
      "name": "Cost Of Inaction",
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      "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation",
      "matchId": "100ad489-dbf4-43de-8e22-48ed5d7f68fc",
      "evidence": "The deck implies that investors will suffer financial losses if they do not heed Spruce Point's warning.",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "The cost of inaction for investors who fail to recognize LHCG's true financial performance.",
      "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point",
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