{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-c6f1577ed5e1",
  "docSlug": "97e66c73c118",
  "documentTitle": "Hill-Rom Holdings, Inc. (HRC)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Ben Axler",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2019-10-29 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 43,
  "pageCount": 80,
  "prevPage": 42,
  "nextPage": 44,
  "slideType": "preempt_rebuttal",
  "function": "preempt_rebuttal",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 32,
  "notes": "The slide uses a scenario table to show two different cannibalization/incremental contribution assumptions, leading to a projected growth rate that is highlighted as unrealistic.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "paragraph",
    "data_table",
    "line_chart",
    "callout_box"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-c6f1577ed5e1/43",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-c6f1577ed5e1",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-c6f1577ed5e1.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-c6f1577ed5e1#slide-43",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.22,
        "x": 0.76,
        "y": 0.31
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Consensus estimates imply extremely unlikely Q4 core growth ex-new products",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "6b3ee416-01d0-455d-9ea1-106ba79eb38a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.45,
        "w": 0.48,
        "x": 0.51,
        "y": 0.4
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Implied Organic Core Growth Ex-New Products chart showing historical trends and projected Q4 2019 spikes.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "line",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "da242b00-a8eb-4b09-b2f5-d3a41dccbcee",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "organic core revenue growth: 4.1%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-203c-716b-be77-6435320000a3",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.96,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.88
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Spruce Point believes that it is highly unlikely that organic core growth excluding new products will grow a whopping 300-650 bps above its trailing eight-quarter average in Q4 FY19.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "1a4d6019-462b-493f-b31b-8cf77c532997",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.09,
        "w": 0.96,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.17
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Spruce Point estimates that, for Hill-Rom to hit consensus revenue estimates for Q4 FY19 against the recent plateau in new product sales growth, the Company would have to produce organic core revenue growth of between 3.4% and 4.1% excluding incremental new product sales...",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "9f5accf9-b0b0-40a2-8763-5014a8ffb5c4",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.15,
        "x": 0.51,
        "y": 0.85
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Spruce Point estimates",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "73b834bf-f52b-4f18-b98b-6cd728e8393a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.45,
        "w": 0.48,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.4
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Table comparing 50% vs 85% incremental contribution scenarios for Q4 FY18 and Q4 FY19E.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "scenario",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "9a016376-1d7a-4f12-acd4-4525ccb4b273",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.65,
        "x": 0.31,
        "y": 0.03
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Hill-Rom Set Up For a Q4 Miss Due to Sell-Side's Misunderstanding of Underlying Growth?",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "fd152d74-effa-4e8d-8444-f69eadd2df15",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "preempt_rebuttal",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "ecf4fc91-c992-4899-a705-418a3d0f20b9",
      "evidence": "The slide explicitly argues against consensus estimates by showing the underlying math is unrealistic.",
      "confidence": 1
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}