{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-c3e7825e1948",
  "docSlug": "8b6a62f49fba",
  "documentTitle": "Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Ben Axler",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2019-09-05 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 85,
  "pageCount": 92,
  "prevPage": 84,
  "nextPage": 86,
  "slideType": "expose_contradiction",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 9,
  "notes": "Uses a pie chart to visualize import concentration and pull-quotes to highlight management's downplaying of risks.",
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  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-c3e7825e1948/85",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-c3e7825e1948",
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      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "CHD has two of its \"Power Brands\" – Spinbrush and Waterpik – are sourced from China and exposed to tariffs.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
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    {
      "bbox": {
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      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Import Sources: 22% Hong Kong and China",
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      "subkind": "pie",
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    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "import concentration: 16%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
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      "componentId": "019dd953-1ac2-71b6-bf5a-aa4350858efe",
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      "bbox": {
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "CHD has two of its \"Power Brands\" – Spinbrush and Waterpik – are sourced from China and exposed to tariffs. In addition, CHD has stated its intention to increase its business profile in China. At the moment, FLAWLESS is not exposed, but as trade wars escalate there is downside risk to CHD's business. There is also the prospect of trade disruption with protests in Hong Kong, where 16% of total CHD imports are received from.",
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      },
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "CEO Farrell CAG NY Conference, Feb 2019: \"In Asia, so it accounts for $90 million of our $200 million export business... So big, big ideas, big, big expectations for China in the future.\"",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "pull-quote",
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      "bbox": {
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      },
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "CEO Farrell CAG NY Conference, Feb 2019: \"So Waterpik has been hit with a 25% tariff... It's sourced from China, a long supply chain. So we're used to that. Another one would be TROJAN vibrators. It's also sourced from China...\"",
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      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "CFO Dierker FLAWLESS Call, March 2019: \"This should be in that Tier 4 that hasn't even been implemented yet when anything and everything from China could be impacted. So no impact on tariffs right now..\"",
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    {
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      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "\"In Asia, so it accounts for $90 million of our $200 million export business... So big, big ideas, big, big expectations for China in the future.\" — CEO Farrell, CAG NY Conference, Feb 2019; \"This should be in that Tier 4 that hasn't even been implemented yet when anything and everything from China could be impacted. So no impact on tariffs right now..\" — CFO Dierker, FLAWLESS Call, March 2019; \"So Waterpik has been hit with a 25% tariff... it's 25% upcharge on everything that comes from China...\" — CEO Farrell, CAG NY Conference, Feb 2019",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Panjiva",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Under-Appreciated China And Hong Kong Risks Reduce Visibility",
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  "frameworks": [
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      "matchId": "2d170b0d-7aef-4bee-b599-1587bfb4e5c9",
      "evidence": "Contrasting management's optimistic growth quotes with the reality of tariff impacts and supply chain risks.",
      "confidence": 0.95
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      "beatId": "2e0f1062-a9eb-4652-b31c-c17952a18aaf",
      "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution",
      "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution",
      "beatName": "Solution",
      "beatSlug": "problem-agitate-solution-solution-provide-relief",
      "evidence": "The solution is implicitly presented through valuation tables and comparisons, suggesting a sell opinion to mitigate downside risk.",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Resolution",
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  "loops": [
    {
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      "from": 1,
      "name": "Cost Of Inaction",
      "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction",
      "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation",
      "matchId": "d8d41695-ad33-43d2-9478-d227476d9e68",
      "evidence": "The overall thesis implies that failing to act on Spruce Point's analysis could lead to significant financial losses for investors holding onto CHD stock.",
      "position": 2,
      "objective": "The cost of not selling CHD",
      "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point",
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing"
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