{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-c3e7825e1948",
  "docSlug": "8b6a62f49fba",
  "documentTitle": "Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Ben Axler",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2019-09-05 00:00:00",
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  "pageNumber": 11,
  "pageCount": 92,
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  "slideType": "expose_contradiction",
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  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 6,
  "notes": "Uses callout boxes to systematically refute seven specific points from a Jefferies analyst report.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Bull: “Superior FCF Conversion” Bear: Inferior FCF. Overstated by not consolidating JV capex, factoring of receivables, and aggressive marking of acquisition goodwill...",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Bull: “High EPS Visibility” Bear: Low visibility with increasing risks in China and Hong Kong. Management resorting to burying one-time items...",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Bull: “Attractive Valuation” Bear: Three recent directors sold at $79 - $80/sh. Trades at a large premium to peers for a few percentage points of organic growth...",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Bull: “Best-In-Class M&A” Bear: Legacy “Power Brand” deals have been failures. Current deals are already showing signs of failure",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Bull: “Strong Management” Bear: Promotional and weak management, resorting to potentially misrepresenting results to reap unjust comp.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Bull: “Widening Org(anic) Sales Gap vs. Peers” Bear: Aggressive price increases announced in Q3’18 set to lapse. Undisclosed acquisitions juicing organic growth...",
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      "kind": "image",
      "text": "Edging Estimates and PT Higher as CHD Remains a Core Holding...",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "While most analysts are Hold / Market perform, a select few are bullish, and see upside to the mid $80s. One such analyst is Jefferies, with an $86 price target. We’ve deconstructed the “Key Tenants” of its Buy rating.",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "“Bull Case” Rests on Misguided Assumptions",
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      "evidence": "Systematic deconstruction of analyst claims to expose management misrepresentation.",
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      "evidence": "The document extensively details the problems with CHD, including rising debt, low-quality EBITDA, worrisome strategy shifts, and concerning CEO history.",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Development",
      "parentBeatSlug": "development"
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      "evidence": "The slide titled '“Bull Case” Rests on Misguided Assumptions' serves as an Aha moment by directly challenging the prevailing positive view of CHD.",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "To reveal the contradiction in CHD's 'bull case'",
      "structure": "The Problem/Question -> What the Data Shows -> The Insight",
      "confidence": 0.7,
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      "name": "Cost Of Inaction",
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      "evidence": "The overall thesis implies that failing to act on Spruce Point's analysis could lead to significant financial losses for investors holding onto CHD stock.",
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      "objective": "The cost of not selling CHD",
      "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point",
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      "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing"
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