{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-be9011f05a27", "docSlug": "1cbf7684bf7d", "documentTitle": "Penumbra, Inc. (PEN)", "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital", "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2019-07-31 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "pageNumber": 26, "pageCount": 61, "prevPage": 25, "nextPage": 27, "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "function": "expose_contradiction", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "Uses a call-and-response format to present evidence of a market share discrepancy.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "callout_box", "quote_block" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-be9011f05a27/26", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-be9011f05a27", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-be9011f05a27.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-be9011f05a27#slide-26", "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.89 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "If Medtronic’s claims regarding its current share and share trajectory are at all credible – and we have no reason to believe that they are not – then sell-side market share estimates for Penumbra, and sales growth estimates by extension, are off by a tremendous margin.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "e877af64-2361-456b-ab25-b10bf3757e04", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.27, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Medtronic Q4 FY19 Conference Call (05/23/19)", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "f0660943-9bf8-413b-9e8f-0d5a052b11b9", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "If Medtronic's claims regarding its current share and share trajectory are at all credible – and we have no reason to believe that they are not – then sell-side market share estimates for Penumbra, and sales growth estimates by extension, are off by a tremendous margin.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-64d2-7657-bbde-bb0f314f17f6", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "market share: 15%", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": "Quantification", "toolSlug": "quantification", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-64d2-7657-bbde-c1a5731d1c9e", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Market analysts believe that, as of fiscal year end 2018, Penumbra held 89% share of the U.S. aspiration catheter market. Yet, on its May 23 earnings call, Medtronic claimed to have 15% of this market already, ahead of schedule. Management expects to achieve 25% share by the end of its fiscal year and “eventually” 50%. With just one of Penumbra’s four major competitors claiming 15% share, how could Penumbra’s current share possibly be 89%? Medtronic’s projection also flies in the face of analyst forecasts, which put Penumbra’s U.S. aspiration share at 88% by the end of FY19, and which don’t see Penumbra’s share falling beneath 75% until after 2023.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "34d97c82-c3d0-4493-81a1-f9a0c8531779", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "“And then just wanted to ask one question on neuro. So, the neurovascular growth is very strong, could you talk about some of the components of that and whether you’re seeing a stronger market there, are there any product launches that help you this quarter?” - Matthew Taylor – UBS", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "a3bbb46c-88a9-48ba-baa8-c842b4393f2e", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.32, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.24, "y": 0.5 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "“Yes, sure. So first of all, in neurovascular, we have -- at Medtronic, we’ve a broad portfolio playing in every segment, and that is our strategy. And we’re on number one positions in both ischemic and overall hemorrhagic, and we’ve recently refreshed that entire portfolio. Nobody else can say this. So it’s a very strong market. We’re very well positioned across every segment. Now, what’s driving our growth in the near term is the -- first of all, entering the aspiration market, where we launched the 068 and now the 071 Riptide systems or catheters, and we’ve got -- we’re getting really, really positive feedback on both. The 068 started out a little slow because we had to make some adjustments to the product, and we had a soft launch. Made some adjustments to the product, and now it’s picking up. The 071 hit the ground running and we’re getting great feedback. And we estimate that we’re somewhere around 15% of this market already, well ahead of our plans in the aspiration segment, well ahead of our plans. We see ourselves getting to 25% by the end of the fiscal year and we think we’ll eventually get to 50% of this aspiration market. And on top of that, we just launched our next-gen stent retriever to maintain and extend our lead in that segment. So those are some of the things that are driving it. And I’d say the other big driver is just the global nature. We are just growing very fast in China. And so the fact that we’re global is also helping, especially in China. So it’s a global and broad and refreshed product portfolio.” - Geoffrey Martha – Executive Vice President and President of Restorative Therapies Group, Medtronic", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "fc34503a-d6d4-436a-b83c-919ef99c9b88", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"The 071 hit the ground running and we're getting great feedback. And we estimate that we're somewhere around 15% of this market already, well ahead of our plans. We see ourselves getting to 25% by the end of the fiscal year and we think we'll eventually get to 50% of this aspiration market.\" — Geoffrey Martha, Executive Vice President and President of Restorative Therapies Group, Medtronic", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-64d2-7657-bbde-be66f1b9b304", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Street Market Share Estimates Conflict With Competitor Statements", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b1daa14f-2ffc-4f76-a5b6-59ef4ff873f9", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "call-and-response", "slug": null, "matchId": "7f1deb1f-a9cb-405c-ac9d-b02b68042199", "evidence": "Uses a question from an analyst followed by a detailed response from a company executive to highlight a contradiction.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 30, "from": 11, "beatId": "b3c04c25-9043-4858-9f00-1ee6f45ad307", "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster", "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster", "beatName": "The Struggle", "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "evidence": "The document presents the competitive pressures and challenges faced by Penumbra.", "position": 1, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Development", "parentBeatSlug": "development" } ], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }