{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-98685acdea95",
  "docSlug": "11e962264b36",
  "documentTitle": "Carvana Co. (CVNA)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": null,
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2019-03-01 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 97,
  "pageCount": 98,
  "prevPage": 96,
  "nextPage": 98,
  "slideType": "expose_contradiction",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 0,
  "notes": "The slide uses a 'bull vs. bear' framing to systematically dismantle the investment thesis for Carvana.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "paragraph",
    "comparison_table"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-98685acdea95/97",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-98685acdea95",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-98685acdea95.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-98685acdea95#slide-97",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "The reality: not only do you have to believe in the underlying economics of the business, but you have to believe that (A) the sales today are real and self-sustaining, and (B) that the financing will continue to be there until Carvana is a sustainable business.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-ee35-7258-b4d5-e93d23f17a81",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.09,
        "w": 0.94,
        "x": 0.03,
        "y": 0.16
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "The bulls want you to think that this stock is valuable because the top-line growth is there and the story is good. They’re still waiting on profit and cash flow, but they’re excited enough about the growth potential and qualitative aspects of the business model to trust that earnings will come. Call it the Ray Kinsella theory of investing: “If you build it, they will come.”",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "19fe4582-6362-471c-87a0-28e6890c30d9",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.16,
        "w": 0.94,
        "x": 0.03,
        "y": 0.26
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "The reality: not only do you have to believe in the underlying economics of the business, but you have to believe that (A) the sales today are real and self-sustaining, and (B) that the financing will continue to be there until Carvana is a sustainable business. What happens if the seemingly-irrational buyers of Carvana’s subprime auto loans withdraw financing, or lack the capacity to fund a larger Carvana? Could gross profit recover? Would anyone else step up to provide funding? What happens if the credit cycle turns, and junk-rated Carvana is no longer able to fund the cash burn? What happens if regulators come down on Carvana for moving hard and fast to grow sales and generate earnings (neglecting inspection and reconditioning obligations, illegally selling VSCs for more 100% gross margin sales, generating outsized VSC profits via related-party dealings, etc.)?",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "d2b3c0b2-7931-4ab2-a57a-9eb659157aaf",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "“If you build it, they will come.” — Ray Kinsella theory of investing",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Authority citation",
      "toolSlug": "authority-citation",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-ee35-7258-b4d5-ed9130816316",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.5,
        "w": 0.94,
        "x": 0.03,
        "y": 0.45
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Comparison table of Topic, What The Bulls Think, and Reality across 7 rows.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "f4d03eb6-0b88-4c25-a176-b5a34895628c",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.65,
        "x": 0.31,
        "y": 0.03
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "More Realistic: Carvana Is A Ticking Time Bomb Waiting To Go To Zero",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "40c0a872-54f7-48aa-8b30-1c7bcc14aa09",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "comparison_frame",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "7b54d5b3-b20a-4e23-ba8d-5b7f6ce4ece6",
      "evidence": "The slide uses a side-by-side comparison table to contrast bull vs. bear perspectives.",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 98,
      "from": 83,
      "beatId": "b5348fc0-f481-4cc9-9c3f-b00bbcf105e5",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "The Victory",
      "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory",
      "evidence": "The deck concludes with a clear victory for Spruce Point, with a reiteration of downside risk in CVNA.",
      "position": 3,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Turn",
      "parentBeatSlug": "turn"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}