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  "documentTitle": "Carvana Co. (CVNA)",
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  "presentationDate": "2019-03-01 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide uses a third-party analyst report to validate the activist's own negative outlook on the company's financial performance and valuation.",
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      "text": "We applaud Morgan Stanley for being the most realistic analyst on the Street in reviewing Carvana: Morgan Stanley: “4Q18 Review: Focus Shifts to the Potential Need for Capital & Potential for Insider Selling” – Downgrading To Price Target To $21/share",
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      "text": "We applaud Morgan Stanley for being the most realistic analyst on the Street in reviewing Carvana.",
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      "text": "Retail Unit Sales: With 65% US population coverage adding another 22M POPs vs. our previous estimate for an additional 36M POPs (67.6% population coverage 160k - 165k. For 2023, we are lowering our estimate from ~440k to ~420k Retail Units Sold. This has ~$1 negative impact to our price target",
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      "text": "Gross Profit Per Unit: For 2019, we are modeling $2,453 vs. management guidance for $2,450 - $2,650 vs. our previous estimate of $2,410.",
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      "text": "Free Cash Flow: Free Cash Flow was -$186M in 4Q18, or -$339M after adjusting for the change in the Floor Plan Facility, putting the cash balance at $79M. This compares to our previous estimate of -$170M, or -$109M after adjusting for the change in the Floor Plan Facility. We are now modeling positive free cash flow in 2024 vs. our previous estimate for positive free cash flow in 2023. This has ~$1 negative impact to our price target",
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      "text": "We reiterate our UW rating, and lower our price target from $23 to $21. Our new price target of $21 (vs. $23 previously) is based on 12.0x 2023 EBITDA of $398M (vs. 12.0x 2023 EBITDA of $420M). The price target is ~$1 lower due to retail unit sales and ~$1 lower due to the cash balance. 12.0x EV / EBITDA is a discount to the historical multiple for KMX, the most direct comp for CVNA, but the approach is consistent with our Base Case / Price Target for KMX. We are constructive on CVNA's ability to disrupt the used car dealership model. However, we believe this potential upside is more than priced into the stock, and our 2023 EBITDA estimate is 50%+ below consensus, as the focus shifts from market expansion to market penetration. We believe that it will take longer for this business to scale than the Bulls think, and we are concerned about profitability in the meantime.",
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      "text": "% Adjusted EBITDA: For 2019, we are modeling -4.6% vs. management guidance for -3.5% to -5.5% vs. our previous estimate of -5.1%.",
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      "text": "price target: $21",
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      "text": "4Q18 Review: Focus Shifts to the Potential Need for Capital & Potential for Insider Selling — Downgrading To Price Target To $21/share — Morgan Stanley",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Spruce Point Is Not The Only Analyst To Issue Caution On Carvana",
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