{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-98685acdea95",
  "docSlug": "11e962264b36",
  "documentTitle": "Carvana Co. (CVNA)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": null,
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2019-03-01 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 40,
  "pageCount": 98,
  "prevPage": 39,
  "nextPage": 41,
  "slideType": "expose_contradiction",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 45,
  "notes": "Uses red arrows and callouts to highlight the gap between historical performance and future targets.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "paragraph",
    "screenshot",
    "callout_box",
    "line_chart"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-98685acdea95/40",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-98685acdea95",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-98685acdea95.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-98685acdea95#slide-40",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.25,
        "x": 0.73,
        "y": 0.31
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "How meaningful are long-term \"targets\" with such a wide range? These aren't true \"targets\" so much as they are pie-in-the-sky aspirations under rosy growth assumptions",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "953740ec-1696-4879-a38a-427e5787ef6b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.12,
        "w": 0.25,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.54
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Steady ASPs and general industry competitiveness limit opportunities for used car dealers to expand gross margins",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "a117c2da-e2ed-418a-b87d-20d4a6252c43",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.12,
        "w": 0.25,
        "x": 0.73,
        "y": 0.54
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Carvana unlikely to achieve long-term gross margin target given industry competitiveness and historical margin stability",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "a554dcc5-04ff-467f-b43c-5a58f83e363d",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "These aren't true \"targets\" so much as they are pie-in-the-sky aspirations under rosy growth assumptions",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-ee35-7258-b4d0-bd8e75f4640c",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.45,
        "x": 0.55,
        "y": 0.7
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "KMX: GPU (Ex-CAF) line chart",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "line",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c52c8e62-593e-477f-8a69-baeffcdff31f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.45,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.7
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "KMX: ASP and GPU (Ex-CAF) line chart",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "line",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "f366a72f-3fec-4564-894f-42c9ece797ec",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "EBITDA margin: 8-13.5%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-ee35-7258-b4d0-c23601903ac7",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.12,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.16
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "While aggressively targeting medium-term GPU of $3,000 and EBITDA margins of 7%-11.5%, management is even more ambitious in its recently-announced longer-term targets...",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "baca0db8-90f7-4ba1-a2fe-746f54cc1543",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.4,
        "x": 0.3,
        "y": 0.33
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Long Term Financial Goals table showing FY 2017, YTD 2018, and Long Term Target columns.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c348e683-cf14-4b64-9792-fc75b115bdf5",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.65,
        "x": 0.308,
        "y": 0.045
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Longer-Term Targets Even More Aggressive",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "b37751c3-8ee2-4606-8ec9-3ce5a9a45351",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "fraud-exposure",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "4e1b0082-41ad-4c22-a3be-89db3618c6a7",
      "evidence": "Exposing unrealistic financial projections vs historical data",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 50,
      "from": 21,
      "beatId": "3c607426-ff1e-4a70-b914-fe17d1c9fc3d",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "The Struggle",
      "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle",
      "evidence": "The deck presents various challenges and obstacles faced by Carvana, including regulatory concerns and governance issues.",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Development",
      "parentBeatSlug": "development"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}