{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-9727cc72301c",
  "docSlug": "778e2cbfbfaa",
  "documentTitle": "Amdocs Limited (DOX)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Ben Axler",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2019-01-23 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 70,
  "pageCount": 128,
  "prevPage": 69,
  "nextPage": 71,
  "slideType": "valuation_table",
  "function": "size_opportunity",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 15,
  "notes": "The slide uses a 'Spruce Point Adjusted EBITDA' to derive debt capacity and then calculates potential inorganic sales growth based on acquisition multiples.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "paragraph",
    "valuation_table",
    "callout_box",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-9727cc72301c/70",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-9727cc72301c",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-9727cc72301c.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-9727cc72301c#slide-70",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.35,
        "w": 0.42,
        "x": 0.54,
        "y": 0.47
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "We estimate that, assuming management has tolerance for conservative leverage, Amdocs has sufficient debt capacity to grow sales by 2.9% annually over three years via acquisitions even if it records 0% organic growth.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "4481d7da-77e0-4a53-af99-de7830c444de",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Debt Capacity For Future M&A: $816",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-0f1e-7015-9024-1b2f450c139b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.12,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.16
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Management states that it intends to redistribute ~100% of free cash flow, excluding its spending on its Israeli campus, on buybacks and dividends. With the Company already at its cash balance minimum, management must finance any further spending on the campus and on M&A with debt, or else cut its return of capital to shareholders.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "1413a3f6-b6d4-459a-a688-f46849c7b9f6",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.04,
        "w": 0.4,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.96
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "1) Assumes full investment was by loan\n2) Estimated recent acquisition multiples paid by DOX",
      "attrs": {
        "numbered": true
      },
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "81ba2c75-ce48-41e4-9bbe-2d44450a81dc",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.6,
        "w": 0.5,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.33
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Acquisition Capacity Estimate table showing EBITDA adjustments, debt capacity, and implied inorganic sales growth.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "da959ff4-17e0-4506-80ec-5022a7547f5c",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.06,
        "w": 0.65,
        "x": 0.31,
        "y": 0.03
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Limited Capacity For All Capital Allocation Initiatives",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "4e22ad16-2cd9-4176-b53b-d6f61a141401",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "capital-allocation-framework",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "ca3ca67f-a5ca-49cb-b0cc-7d222c05df44",
      "evidence": "The slide analyzes the trade-off between FCF redistribution (buybacks/dividends) and M&A spending.",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 70,
      "from": 60,
      "name": "Hypothesis Test",
      "slug": "42-hypothesis-test",
      "bestFor": "Strategy validation, due diligence, research presentations",
      "matchId": "c60b7124-3faa-41ca-843c-f889942d0e7a",
      "evidence": "The deck presents a thorough analysis of Amdocs' financial performance and management practices to support the hypothesis",
      "position": 3,
      "objective": "Is the hypothesis of a 25-50% downside risk in DOX stock supported?",
      "structure": "The Hypothesis -> Test 1 (Supports/Refutes) -> Test 2 (Supports/Refutes) -> Conclusion (Validated/Pivoted)",
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "description": "State a hypothesis upfront, then systematically prove or disprove it with evidence"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}