{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f",
  "docSlug": "34401c2968d1",
  "documentTitle": "Dexcom, Inc. (DXCM)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Ben Axler",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2019-03-21 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 9,
  "pageCount": 83,
  "prevPage": 8,
  "nextPage": 10,
  "slideType": "expose_contradiction",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 12,
  "notes": "Uses a dual-axis style chart to show historical vs estimated patient adoption trends, highlighting a management reporting change in 2019.",
  "elementsJson": [
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  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f/9",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f#slide-9",
  "components": [
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        "h": 0.1,
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        "x": 0.29,
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "FY19: DXCM management STOPS REPORTING PATIENT BASE GROWTH just as U.S. T1 adoption inflects down",
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      "subkind": "primary",
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        "h": 0.48,
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        "x": 0.23,
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      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "New U.S. CGM Adopters By Diabetes Type",
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        "h": 0.06,
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        "y": 0.91
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      "kind": "list",
      "text": "FY16-18: Dexcom patient base grows with rapid adoption among U.S. T1 diabetics; FY19-20: Low Dexcom patient growth with no T2-targeted CGM and limited U.S. T1 runway; FY21 On: Price-competitive environment with CGM commoditization and lower prices for T2 market",
      "attrs": null,
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    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "New U.S. CGM Adopters",
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      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Had Dexcom moved faster to produce a CGM fit for the T2 market, management's patient growth expectations for FY19 and FY20 would look more realistic... However, with management having failed to come to market with its down-market product as originally scheduled...",
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        "h": 0.02,
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Spruce Point Estimates",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Dexcom Is Too Late To Bridge The Gap From The T1 Cliff To The T2 Ramp",
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  "metrics": [],
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      "name": "fraud-exposure",
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      "matchId": "3ff64ce1-392f-40e7-beb6-5a6572296c5e",
      "evidence": "Highlights management's decision to stop reporting growth metrics during a period of performance decline.",
      "confidence": 0.85
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      "beatId": "bceaf7b2-e6b0-4b8d-96ae-991272dd6aa1",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "Complication",
      "beatSlug": "complication",
      "evidence": "Spruce Point presents several complications, including the market's misinterpretation of Dexcom's sales growth and limited patient growth.",
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      "confidence": 0.8,
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  "loops": [
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      "name": "Pattern Hunter",
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      "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong",
      "matchId": "ec60a922-a471-43e6-9110-ad29b38faf08",
      "evidence": "The deck presents several contradictions in Dexcom's growth story, highlighting the market's misinterpretation.",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "Identify patterns in Dexcom's growth story that contradict the market's interpretation.",
      "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion",
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}