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  "documentTitle": "Dexcom, Inc. (DXCM)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Ben Axler",
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  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2019-03-21 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide uses a red box to highlight the Spruce Point Estimate section, contrasting it with the company's LT Guidance.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Most importantly for the near-term future, we believe that Dexcom faces a particularly steep revenue growth cliff of at least ~18 months as the rate of incremental U.S. T1 CGM penetration decelerates, as the Libre 2 competes directly with the G6 at an ~80% discount, and as the Company fails to make traction in the T2 market without a down-market CGM offering until late 2020 / early 2021 at the earliest.",
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      "text": "Revenue: 1.7%",
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      "text": "The release of the G7 would allow Dexcom to participate in the growth of the CGM industry into the T2 market. However, competing with the Libre for T2 patients would force Dexcom to price the G7 aggressively, weighing heavily on sales growth even after it successfully bridges the ~18 month gap (at minimum) to competition in the T2 market. A shift in product mix to the cheaper G7 would also weigh on margins, but we consider our margin downside estimate to be conservative, as we wonder if Dexcom has the capacity to sell the G7 profitably at all given its scale disadvantage.",
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      "text": "Financial model comparing Historical, DXCM LT Guidance, and Spruce Point Estimate across revenue and patient metrics.",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Base Case Estimate: G7 Supports T2 Penetration After FY20, But Lower Price Weighs On Growth",
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