{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f", "docSlug": "34401c2968d1", "documentTitle": "Dexcom, Inc. (DXCM)", "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital", "authorName": "Ben Axler", "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2019-03-21 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "pageNumber": 70, "pageCount": 83, "prevPage": 69, "nextPage": 71, "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "function": "expose_contradiction", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 18, "notes": "Uses a series of quotes to contrast past transparency with current obfuscation.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "quote_block", "data_table" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f/70", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f#slide-70", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We find it extremely suspicious that management conveniently chose to stop disclosing this number this year, just as their TAM runway is beginning to run out by our estimates, and just as product-level sales growth patterns appear to reveal sales growth has been driven by factors other than growth in the patient base.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd8e-5613e27d42e6", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "patient base", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": "Quantification", "toolSlug": "quantification", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd8e-5fd05c5a386b", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Until recently, management disclosed its CGM patient base dating back to early 2016. The Company suddenly stopped disclosing this figure in FY18. We find it extremely suspicious that management conveniently chose to stop disclosing this number this year, just as their TAM runway is beginning to run out by our estimates, and just as product-level sales growth patterns appear to reveal sales growth has been driven by factors other than growth in the patient base.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "641cb33d-3619-4345-88ea-117cdb7acd3c", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.33, "x": 0.035, "y": 0.375 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"...we're disclosing patient base numbers for the first time - so investors and analysts alike can kind of reset their bar in their models - between 140,000 and 150,000 patients around the world.\" - JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (1/12/16)", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b0d6e3d1-869e-4d3c-a379-8cb285f7ca23", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.33, "x": 0.035, "y": 0.645 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Last year we set a patient base goal at this conference saying we would exit this year with approximately 270,000 patients in our patient base and we have achieved that goal as well.\" - JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (1/9/18)", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "e848a34e-2c06-4a08-872a-8b8298f56da6", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.33, "x": 0.035, "y": 0.525 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Our worldwide patient base we now peg at about 200,000 patients.\" - JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (1/10/17)", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "ed594e4e-1f3e-4a00-936f-cd28c4ffc0ba", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.33, "x": 0.035, "y": 0.795 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"...we're not going to talk about the install base or the patient number.\" - Q4 FY18 Earnings Call (2/21/19)", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "ede11ab1-badb-4fb4-a7bd-9ee15b6f1b11", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"...we're disclosing patient base numbers for the first time - so investors and analysts alike can kind of reset their bar in their models - between 140,000 and 150,000 patients around the world.\" — JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (1/12/16); \"Our worldwide patient base we now peg at about 200,000 patients.\" — JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (1/10/17); \"Last year we set a patient base goal at this conference saying we would exit this year with approximately 270,000 patients in our patient base and we have achieved that goal as well.\" — JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (1/9/18); \"...we're not going to talk about the install base or the patient number.\" — Q4 FY18 Earnings Call (2/21/19)", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd8e-5b574b5047f6", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.43, "y": 0.86 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Dexcom conference calls and investor meetings", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "ec8edb48-9a12-43ab-ac5b-42e8a8d849d3", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.48, "w": 0.54, "x": 0.43, "y": 0.375 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Dexcom Patient Base Growth and Product-Level Sales Growth table", "attrs": null, "subkind": "data", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "0b56f4c0-2919-4c9b-93e0-bc8c81f75999", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.314, "y": 0.038 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Management Conveniently Hiding Disclosures Which Would Reveal Disappointing Patient Growth", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "a061d733-a1d7-4e32-af96-ddcb02106869", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "fraud-exposure", "slug": null, "matchId": "66c9c65b-32b3-4d86-a52e-b2ff1fcfee1f", "evidence": "Contrasting management quotes to expose potential obfuscation of negative metrics.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }