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  "docSlug": "34401c2968d1",
  "documentTitle": "Dexcom, Inc. (DXCM)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Ben Axler",
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  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2019-03-21 00:00:00",
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  "pageNumber": 56,
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  "slideType": "market_sizing",
  "function": "size_opportunity",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 12,
  "notes": "Uses a combination of bar charts for market sizing and pie charts for incremental share to derive a final 'remaining patient' figure.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "143K remaining U.S. patients for Dexcom at prevailing incremental market share levels",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "If Dexcom fails to cut prices by a substantial (yet unsustainable) margin to better match Abbott, its near-term growth runway is severely limited.",
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      "text": "Remaining U.S. T1 Market Opportunity",
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      "text": "Remaining U.S. Insulin-Dependent T2 Market Opportunity",
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      "text": "RECENT U.S. T2 INCREMENTAL MARKET SHARE",
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      "text": "RECENT U.S. T1 INCREMENTAL MARKET SHARE",
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      "text": "Remaining Patient Runway: 143K",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "With the U.S. T1 market ~50% penetrated, only ~640K U.S. T1 patients remain for the taking. However, our conversations with medical professionals suggest that 20-30% of T1 patients will likely not adopt CGMs for reasons including cost, comfort, etc. This leaves just ~330K unclaimed patients in the U.S. T1 runway, just half the perceived remaining T1 market. Further, with only price-sensitive late adopters remaining in this market, we believe that Abbott will claim material share of the remaining U.S. T1 market. If Abbott continues to claim ~70% incremental share of the U.S. T1 market, only ~90,000 U.S. T1 patients remain for the taking by Dexcom. The vast majority of the remaining U.S. market opportunity lies among T2 customers, who, again, are largely untouchable by Dexcom at the G-Series' current price point. If Dexcom fails to cut prices by a substantial (yet unsustainable) margin to better match Abbott, its near-term growth runway is severely limited.",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Spruce Point Estimates",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Remaining Growth Runway In Dexcom's Near-Term Target U.S. Market Is Severely Limited",
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