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  "docSlug": "34401c2968d1",
  "documentTitle": "Dexcom, Inc. (DXCM)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Ben Axler",
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  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2019-03-21 00:00:00",
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  "pageNumber": 53,
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  "slideType": "market_sizing",
  "function": "size_opportunity",
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  "notes": "Includes red callout boxes highlighting specific market share data points.",
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  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f/53",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Abbott is currently capturing 96% of the incremental growth among U.S. insulin-dependent T2 diabetics (and 72% of incremental T1 growth).",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "U.S. T1 CGM penetration is already at 50%. If it tops out at 70-80%, growth should begin to decelerate in the coming quarters.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Dexcom has found little success penetrating the insulin-dependent T2 market. We believe that it will continue to struggle as most of its technological advantages are erased.",
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      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "incremental market share: 96%",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "The U.S. T1 CGM market will likely approach a near-saturation point within the next one to two years. As T1 adoption decelerates, the battleground for new customer adoption will move to the insulin-dependent T2 market, for which Dexcom's current CGM lineup is ill-suited. Notably, we estimate that the Libre claimed a tremendous ~96% of incremental CGM market share through 2018. This is corroborated by prescription data.",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Sources: Spruce Point Estimates ABT, DXCM, MDT, SENS SEC Filings, Transcripts and Corporate Presentations, American Diabetes Association 1. Other includes US patient estimates for Medtronic and Eversense",
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      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Three tables showing patient counts and incremental growth for Abbott, Dexcom, and Medtronic/Senseonics across T1 and T2 segments.",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "As The T1 CGM Opportunity Nears Saturation, Growth Will Come From U.S. T2 Adoption",
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