{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f",
  "docSlug": "34401c2968d1",
  "documentTitle": "Dexcom, Inc. (DXCM)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Ben Axler",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2019-03-21 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 11,
  "pageCount": 83,
  "prevPage": 10,
  "nextPage": 12,
  "slideType": "expose_contradiction",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 2,
  "notes": "Uses a combination of market share data and stock valuation charts to argue for a valuation contraction.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "paragraph",
    "bar_chart_stacked",
    "bar_chart_stacked",
    "line_chart",
    "callout_box",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f/11",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f#slide-11",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Meanwhile, while DXCM share price appreciation was driven largely by multiple expansion through H1 FY18, the stock has been range-bound since the middle of FY18 despite continued revenue beats, and the multiple has contracted to some extent on recent sales growth.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd88-5a38837151ff",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.3,
        "w": 0.35,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.28
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Bloomberg Weekly New Prescriptions Written Relative Pharmacy Market Share, Dexcom vs. Abbott",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-stacked-100pct",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "11936feb-5d05-4c71-80a3-2d2556bb47f9",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.3,
        "w": 0.35,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.62
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Bloomberg Weekly New Prescriptions Written Total New Prescriptions Written, Dexcom vs. Abbott",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-vertical",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "4e5e5f2e-e9cd-4e27-86c1-9f8189356dd7",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.4,
        "w": 0.54,
        "x": 0.41,
        "y": 0.28
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Multiple Expansion-Driven Share Price Appreciation Is Losing Steam",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "line",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "451c495e-b513-4e8e-a53b-d4f5978d69c8",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "market share: >90%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd88-5f294656ff77",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.12,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.13
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Patient adoption trends through the pharmacy channel demonstrate that the Abbott has dominated Dexcom in recent share gains. Data provided by Symphony Health Solutions dating back to the first week of 2018 show that Abbott is capturing >90% of the pharmacy channel when compared directly to Dexcom. We believe that this demonstrates that, after 4-5 years of CGM adoption among T1 diabetics, the strongest opportunity for future adoption lies among ID T2 diabetics – and that the Libre is by far the best solution for these patients at current prices.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "4164df47-4721-4b3b-8d2a-c0eee67ea26f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.22,
        "w": 0.54,
        "x": 0.41,
        "y": 0.7
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Meanwhile, while DXCM share price appreciation was driven largely by multiple expansion through H1 FY18, the stock has been range-bound since the middle of FY18 despite continued revenue beats, and the multiple has contracted to some extent on recent sales growth. We believe that the smart money has observed recent prescription trends via Bloomberg and other sources, and sees that Libre share gains have inflected higher since July '18. Insider sales have also accelerated over the same period. We believe that the multiple will contract further towards early FY18 levels as Dexcom's true underlying patient growth trajectory becomes more obvious to the broader market.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "a6f07df4-3efe-4c6e-a834-e2a78a040af9",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.04,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.95
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Bloomberg Symphony Health Solutions. 1. Abbott new prescription data includes both Libre 10-Day and Libre 14-Day sensors. Dexcom new prescription data includes G4, G5, and G6 sensors.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "fe69aa02-b3cf-4c74-a5f0-42bb9a8c8124",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.06,
        "w": 0.65,
        "x": 0.31,
        "y": 0.03
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "The Smart Money Knows That The Growth Story Is Entering The Later Innings",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "47016677-c793-499e-aec7-0da2cde13193",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "fraud-exposure",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "8e6f2373-22c1-431a-978d-2f734fa01bb5",
      "evidence": "Contrasting market share data with stock price performance to suggest overvaluation.",
      "confidence": 0.8
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}