{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-75b90dee081f",
  "docSlug": "664272f4012c",
  "documentTitle": "2U, Inc. (TWOU)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": null,
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2018-07-19 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 4,
  "pageCount": 50,
  "prevPage": 3,
  "nextPage": 5,
  "slideType": "thesis_headline",
  "function": "frame_problem",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 12,
  "notes": "Includes multiple hyperlinks to FOIA requests and competitive contracts as evidence.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "paragraph",
    "bullet_list",
    "callout_box"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-75b90dee081f/4",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-75b90dee081f",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-75b90dee081f.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-75b90dee081f#slide-4",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "2U, Inc. is a money-losing education technology provider that partners with universities to market and manage online graduate degree and short course programs.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-0934-771a-b7b0-77c75382b48a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.27
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Significant Number of Programs Are Underperforming: The Street is neglecting to understand the range of outcomes for both existing and future graduate programs. We have assembled a proprietary historical revenue model that estimates revenues for each individual graduate program using a combination of FOIA requests, conversations with industry participants, company filings, transcripts, publicly available enrollment data, and tuition costs.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "131f888a-96b9-48a1-b1a8-5ec57f0d2b52",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.8
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Steady State Revenues For Future Programs Will Be Lower Than Their Predecessors As New Programs Have Lower Tuition Rates: Steady state performance for mature programs need to be reduced from the $16m of revenues that 2U guides investors to.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "1dab16be-d562-48d8-88e3-6ac2fc0f6603",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.48
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "The Fallacy of 2U’s Steady State Program Revenues Assumes Stable Take-Rates (i.e. Revenue Share %) And Online Course Tuition Costs",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "7de2a15d-28a9-47aa-b159-286122d5328c",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.53
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Steady State Revenues For Future Programs Will Be Lower Than Predecessor Programs Due To Lower Tuition Take-Rates: Competitive pressures along with greater university acceptance of distance learning is already leading to lower tuition take-rates from service providers.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "9735ea64-4dea-4f1e-bea1-4f07893e6dd9",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "downside risk: 30% To 50%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-0934-771a-b7b0-786a3bdd5c08",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.16
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "2U, Inc. is a money-losing education technology provider that partners with universities to market and manage online graduate degree and short course programs. Its one size fits all model is being disrupted by fee-for-service players with lower take-rates. Our Freedom of Information Act (“FOIA”) documents offer compelling evidence that 2U’s long term guidance will disappoint investors.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "0955951c-24f1-4bc4-91d0-2a2426c33cfc",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.05
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Spruce Point Is Short 2U, Inc. (NASDAQ: TWOU), Sees 30% To 50% Downside Risk ($47-$65/sh)",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "5f8994e7-5a84-4f88-a02c-d61733667709",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "fraud-exposure",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "12e23521-da07-49c8-83ca-ed64c968f72b",
      "evidence": "Uses FOIA requests and proprietary data to expose discrepancies in company guidance.",
      "confidence": 0.8
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 6,
      "from": 4,
      "beatId": "f4b0fc01-5e35-4cff-8cbb-d5e435da3476",
      "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution",
      "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution",
      "beatName": "Problem (Identify pain)",
      "beatSlug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain",
      "evidence": "The document identifies 2U's high valuation and potential downside risk as the problem",
      "position": 0,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Complication",
      "parentBeatSlug": "complication"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}