{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-75b90dee081f",
  "docSlug": "664272f4012c",
  "documentTitle": "2U, Inc. (TWOU)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": null,
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2018-07-19 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 27,
  "pageCount": 50,
  "prevPage": 26,
  "nextPage": 28,
  "slideType": "expose_contradiction",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 45,
  "notes": "Uses a callout box to highlight the 40% drop in tuition costs for newer cohorts.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "subtitle_text",
    "paragraph",
    "callout_box",
    "data_table",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-75b90dee081f/27",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-75b90dee081f",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-75b90dee081f.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-75b90dee081f#slide-27",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.5,
        "x": 0.47,
        "y": 0.68
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Investors are likely extrapolating past performance incorrectly. The MBA tuition levels at three colleges launched between March 2016 and January 2018 are at price points that are ~40% ($38,500) lower than 2U's original three programs.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "1a95ad87-aa8e-41fd-aa98-5cc35b032932",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.44,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.24
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "2U is clearly making a bet on the success of the MBA vertical, as they have launched or are planning on launching seven MBA programs between 2016 and 2019.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "7f5f93cb-0f50-40ee-b012-75f4cf87303e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "tuition costs: 40%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-0934-771a-b7b0-01b365e460c1",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.06,
        "w": 0.94,
        "x": 0.03,
        "y": 0.16
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "As we have illustrated in prior slides, the Street is extrapolating past average program performance to future programs. Below we illustrate that the future MBA programs that 2U has partnered with have tuition rates that average 40% below the first thee programs.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "6de5927c-f5ee-44e2-be4b-9eae49e0794c",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.4,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.96
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Company Filings and Spruce Point Estimates (1) Subject to the DGP receiving university, state and/or accreditation approvals",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "bd2b5a96-c0e2-4159-a8e7-da0191aafa20",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.35,
        "w": 0.52,
        "x": 0.45,
        "y": 0.33
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "MBA Program Launch Date and Revenue/Tuition Data",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "285ccdbe-f67a-42e6-84f0-d7f2fa58b1c9",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.6,
        "w": 0.4,
        "x": 0.03,
        "y": 0.33
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Existing and Planned Programs by Vertical (inception - 2019)",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "6c71afaf-b2fd-4a08-97c6-7979b46bfca5",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.68,
        "x": 0.31,
        "y": 0.02
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "The Fallacy of Steady State Revenues: New Launched MBA's Illustrate Commoditization of Programs And Falling Tuition Rates",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c030b648-1978-478d-9d27-ecd650de49ab",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "expose_contradiction",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "76adb6d0-5852-4b66-919b-a916359eb3e6",
      "evidence": "Contrasts market extrapolation with actual declining tuition data.",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 35,
      "from": 26,
      "name": "Hypothesis Test",
      "slug": "42-hypothesis-test",
      "bestFor": "Strategy validation, due diligence, research presentations",
      "matchId": "514bcf07-e718-4bb7-bc5c-bfb12df1efaf",
      "evidence": "The document provides evidence to support the hypothesis that 2U's valuation is unsustainable",
      "position": 2,
      "objective": "to test the hypothesis that 2U's valuation is unsustainable",
      "structure": "The Hypothesis -> Test 1 (Supports/Refutes) -> Test 2 (Supports/Refutes) -> Conclusion (Validated/Pivoted)",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "State a hypothesis upfront, then systematically prove or disprove it with evidence"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}