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  "documentTitle": "Ballard Power Systems (BLDP)",
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  "authorName": "Ben Axler",
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  "presentationDate": "2018-01-25 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "This slide uses a skeptical tone to challenge the growth narrative of the Chinese fuel cell market.",
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      "text": "It is not at all certain that China will develop a fuel cell vehicle market beyond an experimental phase",
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      "text": "Subsidies for refueling stations seem less understood and don’t appear to be on the scale necessary to support the planned demand for vehicles",
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      "text": "A fundamental flaw in this plan is that 1,000 refueling stations is likely not nearly enough to support millions of vehicles",
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      "text": "Subsidies provided by both local and national governments are critical to the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and the necessary refueling infrastructure",
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      "text": "Companies based in or near Beijing and connected to the major SOE enterprises, like Sinohytec, will always be more successful than companies in South China backed by local government and without ties to central SOEs (Synergy)",
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      "text": "Despite little mention from Ballard or the Sell Side Analysts there are currently three fuel cell “value chains” competing in China and we expect credible domestic MEA producers to emerge in the next three years",
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      "text": "Shenzen Centre Power Tech (002733 SHE) has announced plans to invest $754m (RMB 5bn) to develop hydrogen fuel cell technology and Snowman (002639 CN) recently purchased a 17.6% stake in Hydrogenics",
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      "text": "We estimate that there are currently 36 licensed fuel cell vehicles on the road in China, all buses and none in regular service",
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      "text": "As a result of fraud associated with electric vehicle subsidies, the requirements for fuel cell vehicle subsidies are more rigorous, leading to longer payback periods and strains on the supply chains cash flow and working capital",
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      "text": "Current level of HFCV development zone investment only represents 1% of announced plans",
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      "text": "There are 6 refueling stations, only one is public the other 5 are attached to manufacturers operating facilities",
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      "text": "China is still at the very beginning of an experimental phase of developing fuel cell vehicles, much like the US was over a decade ago. It is not at all certain that China will develop a fuel cell vehicle market beyond an experimental phase",
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      "text": "Stated objective of the China Electrical Industry Association in the Blue Book for China’s Hydrogen Industry Infrastructure Development is that there will be a total of 10,000 Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCV) by 2020 and 2,000,000 by 2030 and 1,000 refueling stations by 2030",
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      "text": "China Fuel Cell Market In Nascent Stages of Development",
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