{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-4c28389e5dec", "docSlug": "e9969ec8b548", "documentTitle": "CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV)", "authorId": "53_Kerrisdale_Capital", "authorName": "Kerrisdale Capital", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2025-09-01 00:00:00", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "pageNumber": 4, "pageCount": 30, "prevPage": 3, "nextPage": 5, "slideType": "executive_summary", "function": "summarize", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 8, "notes": "This is a text-heavy research note slide summarizing the core arguments against the company.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-4c28389e5dec/4", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-4c28389e5dec", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-4c28389e5dec.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-4c28389e5dec#slide-4", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "CoreWeave's business runs on leverage, not innovation.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-5375-7572-b866-7eaf3b525d9a", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.14 }, "kind": "list", "text": "CoreWeave’s business runs on leverage, not innovation. CoreWeave has leaned on high-cost delayed draw term loans secured by GPUs (at 11–15% interest rates), OEM vendor financing (9–10%), and billions in junk bonds. Even management admits, “debt is the engine, it’s the fuel.” We estimate CoreWeave will burn $19 billion of cash in 2025 alone and $40 billion through 2028. In 3Q25, adjusted operating income is expected to come in $200m below interest expense. We see net leverage peaking around 6.0x in 2025 and total debt exceeding $40 billion by 2028, at which point the company still will not be cash flow positive.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "3516ff00-cf34-4742-b9ac-46f9a90685ba", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.71 }, "kind": "list", "text": "CoreWeave’s valuation is wildly out of step with reality. CoreWeave is not a disruptive platform but runs a capital-intensive rental shop with no moat, no IP and extreme customer concentration. Returns sit below its cost of capital, meaning growth destroys value rather than creates it. Lenders capture secured, front-loaded returns while equity holders are left with aging chips and terminal risk. This is not a business that scales, let alone one that warrants a premium tech multiple. On a more appropriate basis – such as a discount to book or a low EBIT multiple – fair value is closer to $6-13 per share, down 90% from current levels.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "cbb44093-0a17-4dcc-9d23-a31e24ef4b8e", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.3, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.4 }, "kind": "list", "text": "The model is increasingly out of sync with the future of AI compute. Nearly all revenue comes from long-term Nvidia GPU rental contracts with a few large customers, a structure that enables massive debt financing but leaves CoreWeave boxed in. The model prevents serving smaller, less creditworthy customers on a short-term basis, leaving it reliant on giants who are scaling their own alternatives. As workloads shift from training to inference, hyperscalers increasingly have the means to internalize compute using their own massive data centers and custom silicon (TPUs, MI300X). FT recently reported that even OpenAI is preparing to mass-produce its own chips next year to reduce dependence on Nvidia. Inference does not require expensive, bleeding-edge GPUs or long-term leases; it favors flexibility, efficiency, and cost.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "ebde22cb-51cb-4638-a366-c6a665cbf42f", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "net leverage: 6.0x", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": "Quantification", "toolSlug": "quantification", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-5375-7572-b866-87d301f63c65", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Our reconstruction with realistic assumptions shows equity holders receive no cash flow during contract terms and only speculative crumbs thereafter.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b3b860e1-0bce-483d-b47b-e1582eabad3c", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"debt is the engine, it's the fuel.\" — Management", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-5375-7572-b866-81fef3e96ffb", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive-summary", "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "matchId": "244e829e-8b95-4812-a5be-5659c5d3f515", "evidence": "CoreWeave’s business runs on leverage, not innovation. CoreWeave has leaned on high-cost delayed draw term loans secured by GPUs (at 11–15% interest rates), OEM vendor financing (9–10%), and billions in junk", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }