{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d",
  "docSlug": "a408d79c90df",
  "documentTitle": "Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR)",
  "authorId": "53_Kerrisdale_Capital",
  "authorName": "Kerrisdale Capital",
  "documentKindSlug": "research-note",
  "documentKindLabel": "Research note",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2025-08-01 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 6,
  "pageCount": 45,
  "prevPage": 5,
  "nextPage": 7,
  "slideType": "villain_critique",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 4,
  "notes": "The slide uses a narrative structure to expose contradictions in Aurora's business model, specifically regarding cost, infrastructure, and partner alignment.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "paragraph"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 0.95,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d/6",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d#slide-6",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "We understand that in the quest to achieve the highest possible valuation, Aurora wants to just provide the software and let everyone else do the dirty work of actually building physical equipment and infrastructure.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-2040-777a-8551-8386b8673fb0",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.135,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.331
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Another aspect of costs that Aurora has simply shrugged off is the need for terminals in a hub-and-spoke system. Aurora has so far built two small terminals in Houston and Dallas, respectively, and set aside land for two more right outside Fort Worth and El Paso. But to come anywhere close to its own 2028 guidance, 40-80 terminals are needed, and the cost will run into the billions of dollars.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "6c975797-1c38-40c9-b69a-ae5402e369ab",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.085,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.662
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Aurora is stuck. The technology to enable true point-to-point autonomous freight simply doesn't exist, and if it ever will, it's going to be developed by one of Aurora's growing set of competitors who are attacking the autonomous driving problem in a completely different (but as yet unsuccessful) way.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "ac9be081-c584-45db-9633-b91fe9a75a7f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.115,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.481
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "We understand that in the quest to achieve the highest possible valuation, Aurora wants to just provide the software and let everyone else do the dirty work of actually building physical equipment and infrastructure. But inevitably, that's going to mean that Aurora's OEM partners and terminal operators are going to extract a chunk of the economics that Aurora will try to claim for itself.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "b00ad9bf-c892-40eb-8e55-2735ad8b25b8",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.215,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.094
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "market opportunity, Aurora has also misled investors about the increased cost structure of an autonomous truck ecosystem. Based on discussions with employees at Aurora's own OEM partners – Volvo and PACCAR – the cost of the truck will be about 50% higher than the current average price of a Class 8 truck. The increased cost of redundant vehicle systems plus the autonomy-enabling sensor suite would consume as much as $0.15 / mile, based on our estimates, of the $0.50 / mile that Aurora could hope to charge for its service, further reducing the exploitable market size.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c192dedf-dbb4-4e14-976e-0f9056d896a2",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "fraud-exposure",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "11b84325-d786-4727-bf74-2c6763337d9e",
      "evidence": "The slide explicitly claims Aurora has 'misled investors' and highlights contradictions in their business model.",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}