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  "documentTitle": "Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR)",
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  "notes": "The slide uses anecdotal evidence from industry executives (Continental, PACCAR) to challenge Aurora's business model and technical readiness.",
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      "text": "The upshot is that while Continental might eat the losses for Aurora on the first few thousand trucks, come the next hardware upgrade cycle, that cost will end up where it belongs – on the truck itself, where it will increase the cost to the customer, reducing the ceiling on what Aurora could charge for its software.",
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      "text": "Recent estimates from the sell-side of the cost of Waymo's sensor suite, using a bottom-up calculation of each component of the system, are in the $75,000 range.",
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      "text": "On the other hand, we found a credible estimate from BloombergNEF that the “bare-metal” hardware bill of materials for the lidar, radar, and cameras on Waymo's Gen-5 vehicle is only about $13,000.",
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      "text": "The upshot is that while Continental might eat the losses for Aurora on the first few thousand trucks, come the next hardware upgrade cycle, that cost will end up where it belongs – on the truck itself.",
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      "text": "It's worth trying to ascertain what those hardware costs might be. As a point of reference, Waymo's co-CEO Dmitri Dolgov said in February of 2024 that Waymo's Gen-5 model has $100,000 of self-driving-dedicated equipment added to the base Jaguar I-Pace model.",
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      "text": "Our timing for the true redundant technologies which are needed for L4, our SOP [start of production] is not now, it's down the road, so we keep on being a little surprised when Aurora is saying “hey it's SOP now.”",
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      "text": "is almost convinced that this is not a business model that will be very sustainable in the next ten years...I think it'll come back to the more traditional one — Continental Executive. Our timing for the true redundant technologies which are needed for L4, our SOP [start of production] is not now, it's down the road, so we keep on being a little surprised when Aurora is saying “hey it's SOP now.” We think that it's more like years down the — PACCAR Executive.",
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