{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d",
  "docSlug": "a408d79c90df",
  "documentTitle": "Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR)",
  "authorId": "53_Kerrisdale_Capital",
  "authorName": "Kerrisdale Capital",
  "documentKindSlug": "research-note",
  "documentKindLabel": "Research note",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2025-08-01 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 30,
  "pageCount": 45,
  "prevPage": 29,
  "nextPage": 31,
  "slideType": "research-note",
  "function": "size_opportunity",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 10,
  "notes": "The slide uses a bottom-up calculation to challenge Aurora's TAM claims by applying load-weight assumptions to FHWA ton-mile data.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "paragraph",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 0.95,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d/30",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d#slide-30",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "As for how many vehicle miles are in play for Aurora, we believe it's an order of magnitude smaller than Aurora's 200 billion mile fantasy.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-2040-777a-8552-e71419f10f6b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Total Addressable Market (TAM): 20 billion miles",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-2040-777a-8552-e8bee18cd9ea",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.78,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.09
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "The amount that Aurora will be able to charge for that last category of long trips is not going to be the $0.65-0.85 that they're guiding to, and their TAM won't be anywhere near 200 billion miles.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "29277d7f-d0de-45c2-97e4-953719173e6e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.78,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.73
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "The capacity of the standard 53-foot dry-van truck trailer... is 22 tons, and we estimate that the average load is at least 15 tons. 390 billion ton-miles of travel at an average of 15 tons per trip implies a total of 26 billion miles.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "65e820bd-d372-4dd5-8bf6-8f2308463674",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.78,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.57
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "As for how many vehicle miles are in play for Aurora, we believe it's an order of magnitude smaller than Aurora's 200 billion mile fantasy. The Federal Highway Administration's Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) is a database tool...",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "cbda91c7-1dab-4727-b783-5923e19fc944",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.78,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.26
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "A major reason for this is that for most shipments, trucking companies have the option of paying for team trucking... The cost of team trucking puts a hard ceiling on hub-and-spoke autonomous trucking pricing.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "dac9b8a2-64bf-4767-b6fe-2422619acf46",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.78,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.83
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "10 Less than 15 tons and the economics of shipping begin to shift decisively towards less-than-truckload (LTL) service rather than OTR truckload.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "8456b494-1980-4a4d-88e7-fabb6d751c38",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.4,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.53
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "How many miles are really in play?",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "3b79f17d-7283-4bf3-b0ec-5528c2f6c6ef",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Audience Persona",
      "slug": "audience-persona",
      "agent": "Storyteller",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "273f94e6-0d8d-457c-a7d6-07f9be595d29",
      "evidence": "The capacity of the standard 53-foot dry-van truck trailer... is 22 tons, and we estimate that the average load is at least 15 tons.",
      "confidence": 0.7
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "market-sizing",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "dafa568b-69b4-4a22-9fc7-4d9297be8720",
      "evidence": "Calculation of TAM based on FHWA ton-mile data and average load assumptions.",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}