{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d", "docSlug": "a408d79c90df", "documentTitle": "Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR)", "authorId": "53_Kerrisdale_Capital", "authorName": "Kerrisdale Capital", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2025-08-01 00:00:00", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "pageNumber": 15, "pageCount": 45, "prevPage": 14, "nextPage": 16, "slideType": "villain_critique", "function": "expose_contradiction", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "The slide uses a narrative structure to contrast Aurora's 'self-similarity' highway argument with the slow pace of actual lane expansion.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.9, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d/15", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d#slide-15", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "It's just not believable that the small 450-mile stretch (highlighted in a red box) is taking about a full year to \"unlock\" and that the rest of the highlighted lanes will somehow magically enter Aurora's ODD within the next year and a half.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-70f2-7016-81cc-1bab9db5a849", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.75 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In its most recent investor presentation, Aurora displayed the map below showing “illustrative lane expansion through 2026.” It's just not believable that the small 450-mile stretch (highlighted in a red box) is taking about a full year to “unlock” and that the rest of the highlighted lanes will somehow magically enter Aurora's ODD within the next year and a half.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "27ec9f72-3bc6-44ea-8cdd-46cc9483c2ba", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Besides the story changing on which capabilities needed to be added, Aurora's pitch is the same: highways are self-similar and easier to scale than urban driving. But if scaling the Aurora Driver from the 200 mile Dallas-Houston Lane to the 600-mile Fort Worth-El Paso lane was so effortless, why, after 3.5 years of testing was the system not deployed on this lane simultaneously with the Dallas-Houston deployment? Even if deployment happens tomorrow, the fact that it's taken so long, along with Aurora's total absence on other major highway routes in Texas, suggests that scalability is much harder than Aurora lets on.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "40be1adf-33e3-4db4-90a4-497ba032da7c", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This is particularly comical given how many miles of road Waymo has mastered since March 2022 (15,000) compared to the Aurora Driver (200). Two years later at its March 2024 Investor Day, Aurora was boasting again about the ease of scalability:", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "78744a5a-3edd-4c45-9c35-221a5220cf86", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "is in Arizona and in Minneapolis, right? And so once we crack that, we expect this business to scale operationally, whereas we look at the robotaxi businesses that are working in deep urban environments, we see that much more as a long-term technology slog to get through. And so we just see this as a much more exciting scalable business in the near term.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "f77c466e-2142-4d29-9f08-79906ec6cb6a", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.16, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.56 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As for the expansion of the lane from El Paso to Phoenix, Aurora said in this past October's earnings call that it had just completed mapping the 450-mile route in two weeks, that the Aurora Driver “navigated a vast majority of the lane autonomously in its first-round trip,” and that it expected to begin a pilot in the first half of 2025. In May they confirmed the pilot began in April. The length of time it takes to expand an already existing route by just 450 miles onto a highway that Aurora says is highly similar to what its Driver is already familiar with will be a significant test of Aurora's claims regarding scalability. It should be a slam dunk, but if five years into the system's development it takes a full year to add 450 “self-similar” miles to the Aurora Driver's ODD, the road ahead is going to be excruciating.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "fae56884-4fb8-44cf-82b8-85a87eea3955", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.26 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Now, the self-similarity of this [highway driving] and the R&D investments we make have allowed us to bring online new lanes in a much more rapid way. And to give you a specific example of this, Dallas to Houston, which we started operating on first, when we went to expand that to Fort Worth-El Paso, a lane of approximately 3x the size in terms of length or mileage. That required bringing online only two new capabilities, driving on grades with the engine brake and passing through inland border patrol crossings. That was it.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "pull-quote", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "4eb6b3a8-f624-43ed-b7c1-e8db6814ea16", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Now, the self-similarity of this [highway driving] and the R&D investments we make have allowed us to bring online new lanes in a much more rapid way. And to give you a specific example of this, Dallas to Houston, which we started operating on first, when we went to expand that to Fort Worth-El Paso, a lane of approximately 3x the size in terms of length or mileage. That required bringing online only two new capabilities, driving on grades with the engine brake and passing through inland border patrol crossings. That was it. — Aurora Innovation Management", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-70f2-7016-81cc-1c73081f8617", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }