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  "documentTitle": "Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT)",
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  "authorName": "Kerrisdale Capital",
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  "presentationDate": "2025-01-09 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "This is a research note page from Kerrisdale Capital, focusing on short-selling thesis points regarding Red Cat Holdings.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Red Cat’s 2025 guidance excluding the SRR is laughable, and we don’t think the company will come close to meeting it.",
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      "text": "Red Cat's 2025 guidance excluding the SRR is laughable, and we don't think the company will come close to meeting it.",
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      "text": "$20-25 million comes the Teal 3, the successor to the Teal 2. $20-25 million comes from the FlightWave Edge 130. $5-8 million comes from the FANG FPV",
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      "text": "revenue guidance: $50-55 million",
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      "text": "Finally, NATO allies. This is another market that Red Cat has perennially been on the verge of cracking. On no fewer than six different conference calls since early 2002 has Red Cat promised that the NATO contracts are “several times the size” of the SRR program.",
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      "text": "As we said above, the guidance for the Teal 3 is hard to square with management's explicitly stated inability to effectively manufacture two products in the single existing Teal facility.",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "they're in the market for 60 drones, which would amount to less than $1 million in revenue for Red Cat. Not exactly a sales gusher (even if Red Cat wins the entire bid).",
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      "text": "The Edge 130 (the other half of the guidance) is a light VTOL drone... manufactured by FlightWave... FlightWave didn't even have a manufacturing facility for its drone... We're skeptical.",
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      "text": "so excited that we don't have to switch aircraft for the first time ever and just build — CEO Jeffrey Thompson",
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