{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-405eb4149c5a",
  "docSlug": "d9c5fbbb51d2",
  "documentTitle": "Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT)",
  "authorId": "53_Kerrisdale_Capital",
  "authorName": "Kerrisdale Capital",
  "documentKindSlug": "research-note",
  "documentKindLabel": "Research note",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2025-01-09 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 17,
  "pageCount": 29,
  "prevPage": 16,
  "nextPage": 18,
  "slideType": "expose_contradiction",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 3,
  "notes": "The slide uses a chronological list of quotes to highlight the gap between management's promises and reality.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "paragraph",
    "callout_box"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-405eb4149c5a/17",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-405eb4149c5a",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-405eb4149c5a.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-405eb4149c5a#slide-17",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Despite years of claiming that mass production capabilities are imminent, Red Cat’s manufacturing capacity is likely undersized",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-3f41-721f-9e45-c30914f8b5e7",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.72,
        "x": 0.14,
        "y": 0.85
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "July 27th, 2022: The Teal Drone production line is in full swing and producing high-quality drones. We expect to go into mass production in the fall.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "030adca2-a466-4a58-81ae-0cf1b00f5858",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.72,
        "x": 0.14,
        "y": 0.59
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "February 9th, 2022: ...The production line that we're building, by the way, can do up to 2,000 drones a month.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "14314950-3be8-49a9-897c-0c6545874bfb",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.72,
        "x": 0.14,
        "y": 0.72
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "March 17th, 2022: ...We're keeping our heads down and getting our manufacturing capability to be able to put out thousands of drones a month.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "f2a8c8ab-5738-4d58-bfcb-45dbff8b1341",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.72,
        "x": 0.14,
        "y": 0.45
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Despite years of claiming that mass production capabilities are imminent, Red Cat's manufacturing capacity is likely undersized",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "b0814194-aba9-4e77-9ac4-a7a3d105e09e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.72,
        "x": 0.14,
        "y": 0.26
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Some Red Cat investors seem to have taken solace in the company's revenue guidance of $50-55 million for calendar year 2025 excluding any contribution from the SRR.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "e7c0a708-21bb-4ca2-9c68-2d8843c20c55",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "February 9th, 2022: We're in a really great place with having the manufacturing being built out in Salt Lake City at the Teal factory...The production line that we're building, by the way, can do up to 2,000 drones a month. We're not there yet...but that production line will be able to do 2,000 a month...we've doubled the size of the production facility so that once we get to the max that we can on this existing production line, we're actually going to build another one in the same facility. — Red Cat Management",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Authority citation",
      "toolSlug": "authority-citation",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-3f41-721f-9e45-c75860b2396d",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.72,
        "x": 0.14,
        "y": 0.2
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Red Cat has a Long History of Setting Misleading and Unrealistic Expectations",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "86605e78-52f3-4d6f-abd1-921c3c7721a6",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "expose_contradiction",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "0cf408cd-20fa-40a7-88dd-543a8cdf50cc",
      "evidence": "The slide contrasts management's past claims with the author's assertion of undersized capacity.",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 18,
      "from": 11,
      "beatId": "521225e7-c02c-47c7-8258-77e89cd20178",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "Expose Contradiction",
      "beatSlug": null,
      "evidence": "The document exposes contradictions in Red Cat's revenue guidance and production narrative.",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": null,
      "parentBeatSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}