{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-38d705def13a",
  "docSlug": "f848e5b949be",
  "documentTitle": "D-Wave Quantum Inc (QBTS)",
  "authorId": "53_Kerrisdale_Capital",
  "authorName": "Kerrisdale Capital",
  "documentKindSlug": "research-note",
  "documentKindLabel": "Research note",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2025-04-01 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 8,
  "pageCount": 19,
  "prevPage": 7,
  "nextPage": 9,
  "slideType": "comparison_table",
  "function": "analyze_data",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 30,
  "notes": "The slide highlights significant dilution (77% increase in shares) and a disconnect between share price rally and stagnant revenue estimates.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "data_table",
    "line_chart",
    "paragraph",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-38d705def13a/8",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-38d705def13a",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-38d705def13a.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-38d705def13a#slide-8",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Despite pulling back from recent highs, D-Wave's share price remains up over 600% since last October – a staggering rally that has occurred alongside largely unchanged consensus revenue estimates, as shown below.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-78b5-7512-b5bc-535d0f4bca73",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.285,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.537
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Dual-axis line chart showing share price vs revenue estimates over time.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "line",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "bcc4e6be-2360-4c44-9cc7-bf3786f3c19c",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "dilution: 77%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-78b5-7512-b5bc-56c67bb2fa6d",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.055,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.865
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Shares currently trade at 57x consensus expectation of ~$35m in 2026E - an estimate that optimistically assumes significant year-over-year growth next year despite the non-recurring Jülich system sale in 2025E.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "0de54eb3-45c7-4851-9303-f3c8bcee616a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.055,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.448
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Despite pulling back from recent highs, D-Wave's share price remains up over 600% since last October - a staggering rally that has occurred alongside largely unchanged consensus revenue estimates, as shown below.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "6beb6d9e-dbb8-4675-ade5-7f1964deb6f6",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.45,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.415
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Kerrisdale analysis, QBTS SEC form 10-Q and form 10-K filings.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "3220e4d2-6de9-468d-8f74-d0aa4033d4c2",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.15,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.835
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Bloomberg",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "bc2fa7da-8121-4b8b-9aee-06715d8cbc48",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.285,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.117
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Table of share issuances by quarter including common shares, net proceeds, and implied share price.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "50b092dd-0763-405e-ae17-82e3b58809ef",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.025,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.512
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Recent Share Price Performance vs. Consensus Revenue Estimates",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "5c2916a6-3bb0-4387-8a88-9ac53b1b47d3",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.025,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.092
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Significant Dilutive Share Issuance: 2Q24-1Q25",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "ebabde13-447a-4e54-9a3f-cfe647658bc1",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "2x2 matrix",
      "slug": "matrix-2x2",
      "agent": null,
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "997f0b90-1564-4a05-93a2-8f79d9137e64",
      "evidence": "table/data: Table of share issuances by quarter including common shares, net proceeds, and implied share price.",
      "confidence": 0.7
    },
    {
      "name": "Chartjunk Elimination",
      "slug": "chartjunk-elimination",
      "agent": "Designer",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "1d12ed08-35fb-4c33-9ce5-7f00a2c1aedc",
      "evidence": "chart/line: Dual-axis line chart showing share price vs revenue estimates over time.",
      "confidence": 0.7
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 12,
      "from": 5,
      "beatId": "60192a38-bd78-4dbb-b2b9-651141148afe",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "The Monster",
      "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-monster",
      "evidence": "Slides 5-12 present the limitations and criticisms of D-Wave's technology.",
      "position": 0,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Hook",
      "parentBeatSlug": "hook"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 12,
      "from": 5,
      "name": "Cost Of Inaction",
      "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction",
      "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation",
      "matchId": "a45b4842-feed-4ff3-831d-bd7976002313",
      "evidence": "The document highlights the limitations and risks of using past-gen computing technology.",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "The cost of inaction or using outdated technology",
      "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}