{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-38d705def13a",
  "docSlug": "f848e5b949be",
  "documentTitle": "D-Wave Quantum Inc (QBTS)",
  "authorId": "53_Kerrisdale_Capital",
  "authorName": "Kerrisdale Capital",
  "documentKindSlug": "research-note",
  "documentKindLabel": "Research note",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2025-04-01 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 16,
  "pageCount": 19,
  "prevPage": 15,
  "nextPage": 17,
  "slideType": "villain_critique",
  "function": "name_villain",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 0,
  "notes": "The slide uses a testimonial from an industry consultant to reinforce the negative thesis.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "paragraph",
    "quote_block"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-38d705def13a/16",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-38d705def13a",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-38d705def13a.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-38d705def13a#slide-16",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "D-Wave risks becoming a footnote in the very revolution it claims to lead.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-78b6-764f-bc74-1ec1fd11cb8d",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.075,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.093
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "were carefully engineered to sidestep D-Wave's known limitations. Even the most complex instance cited - the biclique lattice - is an abstract problem with no direct industrial relevance. As all three experts quoted above emphasized, the result is academically impressive but falls well short of D-Wave's bold framing around \"useful\" quantum advantage.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "11995848-0884-4962-bd59-ecd02c86d2af",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.095,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.175
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "This episode fits a familiar pattern in quantum computing: incremental progress repackaged as revolutionary breakthrough - most recently evident in Microsoft's overhyped Majorana qubit announcement. We believe that modeling complex real-world magnetic systems remains beyond D-Wave's capabilities. D-Wave's latest simulation results are not a paradigm-shifting advance as the company suggests. The problem was contrived, the competitive context questionable, and the real-world utility effectively nonexistent.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "1215628b-18ad-4a22-bdd0-4e9d0613d145",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.68,
        "x": 0.16,
        "y": 0.428
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "— Industry consultant, 20 years in quantum computing business development for IBM, Quantinuum, and several others in the industry.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "68d667fa-9591-4099-be25-39c96305ee07",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.13,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.477
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Quantum annealing is not the future of quantum computing. D-Wave's unwillingness to disclose the true role of quantum hardware in its hybrid solutions underscores a deeper reality: annealing isn't just niche - it's commercially unviable. Optimization customers have been sold a costly marketing gimmick rather than a groundbreaking tool, even as the broader industry advances toward fault-tolerant, gate-model systems capable of tackling problems annealing was never designed to handle. Without a successful pivot - unlikely as its gate-model effort stagnates while deep-pocketed competitors race ahead - D-Wave risks becoming a footnote in the very revolution it claims to lead.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "eef372d3-f60f-4796-aaa4-a2a9b92d796e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.075,
        "w": 0.68,
        "x": 0.16,
        "y": 0.348
      },
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "\"They're trying to turn the business around. But to me, the technology is old and it's going to be outperformed by true gate-based quantum...they [D-wave] were great at starting off quantum, but they're in the ending arc of their business, they're not in the expanding arc.\"",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "testimonial",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "42981953-3d2e-44a8-b28e-4308c846b1ac",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "They’re trying to turn the business around. But to me, the technology is old and it’s going to be outperformed by true gate-based quantum...they [D-wave] were great at starting off quantum, but they’re in the ending arc of their business, they’re not in the expanding arc. — Industry consultant, 20 years in quantum computing business development for IBM, Quantinuum, and several others in the industry.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Authority citation",
      "toolSlug": "authority-citation",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-78b6-764f-bc74-22cb1ffa7bd6",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.025,
        "w": 0.135,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.305
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Conclusion",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "97b71bb0-7fb2-4d6b-bfb2-b0011fb934b3",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 16,
      "from": 13,
      "beatId": "8f62591a-fb18-4481-b9f4-db705a82e6ae",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "The Struggle",
      "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle",
      "evidence": "Slides 13-16 present the struggle or challenges faced by D-Wave.",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Development",
      "parentBeatSlug": "development"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 16,
      "from": 13,
      "name": "Myth Buster",
      "slug": "12-myth-buster",
      "bestFor": "Rebranding, changing market perception, correcting false assumptions",
      "matchId": "5ed31335-8f19-40e3-a3d4-3fd562803888",
      "evidence": "The document presents a critical view of D-Wave's technology and progress.",
      "position": 1,
      "objective": "Busting the myth of D-Wave's technological advancements",
      "structure": "The Common Belief -> The Friction/Failure of that Belief -> The New Truth",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Address a common misconception head-on to clear the room for a new truth"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}