{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-38d705def13a", "docSlug": "f848e5b949be", "documentTitle": "D-Wave Quantum Inc (QBTS)", "authorId": "53_Kerrisdale_Capital", "authorName": "Kerrisdale Capital", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2025-04-01 00:00:00", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "pageNumber": 15, "pageCount": 19, "prevPage": 14, "nextPage": 16, "slideType": "villain_critique", "function": "name_villain", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "Uses expert quotes to undermine the credibility of the company's technical claims.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "quote_block" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-38d705def13a/15", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-38d705def13a", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-38d705def13a.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-38d705def13a#slide-15", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "While the underlying research reflects meaningful progress in academic quantum simulation, framing it as a real-world breakthrough is a stretch.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-78b6-764f-bc74-9e1f88863753", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.075, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.515 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This report has so far focused on the limitations of D-Wave's quantum annealer... But quantum annealing is also being explored for quantum simulation...", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "99c2af43-4ff0-401d-8dc1-d105cdfe7c66", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.185, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.605 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In a press release highlighting its paper 'Beyond-Classical Computation in Quantum Simulation,' the company claimed to have 'unequivocally validate[d] the world's first and only demonstration of quantum computational supremacy on a useful, real-world problem'", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "ab3023a6-d06c-484f-9000-47e4445f9127", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.035, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.805 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "While the underlying research reflects meaningful progress in academic quantum simulation, framing it as a real-world breakthrough is a stretch.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "aedae67c-2290-486b-877a-3e6b11b34698", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.055, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.265 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "It's a toy problem...it's certainly not a real-world problem in the sense of having practical applications...", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "2fc1b0fd-4199-4f66-934f-f4280be10a37", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.095, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.135 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "The claim of quantum supremacy is a clear no...Papers have refuted D-Wave's claim and D-Wave is just holding onto a small technicality...", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "36b4f0f0-3987-4c38-88db-1aaca468d465", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.075, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.375 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "It's almost like what they built is to solve this problem...in reality you want to make this more complex...their system won't be able to solve it.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "c1e40d46-ebd4-4616-ada9-7467c4893e1c", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"The claim of quantum supremacy is a clear no...I’m willing to bet a thousand bucks that in the next three months some science team is gonna simulate that diamond lattice and say, there you go...Papers have refuted D-Wave’s claim and D-Wave is just holding onto a small technicality...Ok, so they did a different lattice shape? Big deal. Let’s not forget the obvious fact that this problem is very contrived, and the real-world lattice would be a pyrochlore lattice and that they cannot do.\" — PhD Physics, expert in quantum physics and materials science. \"It’s a toy problem...it’s certainly not a real-world problem in the sense of having practical applications that will lead to new discoveries and material science or something along those lines.\" — PhD Physics, 30 years of experience in quantum computing research. \"It’s almost like what they built is to solve this problem...They say it’s material science, but my thought would be, in reality you want to make this more complex, and as soon as you make this more complex – more variables or you make it a mixture or something – as soon as you introduce that, their system won’t be able to solve it.\" — PhD Computational Chemistry, 20+ years as scientist.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-78b6-764f-bc74-a255434b34e6", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.025, "w": 0.285, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.095 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Quantum Supremacy Spin", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "e96ccce6-cdd4-4153-b536-128543ef9e7b", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "authority-citation", "slug": null, "matchId": "013dab77-8e37-41e8-b512-c74397d1b082", "evidence": "Uses PhD expert quotes to validate the critique.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 16, "from": 13, "beatId": "8f62591a-fb18-4481-b9f4-db705a82e6ae", "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster", "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster", "beatName": "The Struggle", "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "evidence": "Slides 13-16 present the struggle or challenges faced by D-Wave.", "position": 1, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Development", "parentBeatSlug": "development" } ], "loops": [ { "to": 16, "from": 13, "name": "Myth Buster", "slug": "12-myth-buster", "bestFor": "Rebranding, changing market perception, correcting false assumptions", "matchId": "5ed31335-8f19-40e3-a3d4-3fd562803888", "evidence": "The document presents a critical view of D-Wave's technology and progress.", "position": 1, "objective": "Busting the myth of D-Wave's technological advancements", "structure": "The Common Belief -> The Friction/Failure of that Belief -> The New Truth", "confidence": 0.7, "description": "Address a common misconception head-on to clear the room for a new truth" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }