{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-333f2fdb39d6", "docSlug": "7c592f478795", "documentTitle": "Oklo Inc. (OKLO)", "authorId": "53_Kerrisdale_Capital", "authorName": "Kerrisdale Capital", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2024-11-01 00:00:00", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "pageNumber": 13, "pageCount": 26, "prevPage": 12, "nextPage": 14, "slideType": "villain_critique", "function": "expose_contradiction", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 8, "notes": "Uses a series of quotes from industry experts to undermine the target's financial claims.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "quote_block", "paragraph" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-333f2fdb39d6/13", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-333f2fdb39d6", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-333f2fdb39d6.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-333f2fdb39d6#slide-13", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Oklo uses “illustrative unit economics” to promote the anticipated low capital costs and cash returns... We believe there are several problems with Oklo’s unit economics which render them grossly misleading.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-0f20-71ed-bdde-982a93ab671d", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.67 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "First, while the bulk of our diligence on unit economics focused on fuel costs rather than plant costs, Oklo’s estimate of ~$61m for a NOAK... 50 MWe plant was also met with skepticism from experts we interviewed.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "4bb28c79-075a-4be5-bb58-41bad7e8803b", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.56 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Oklo uses “illustrative unit economics” to promote the anticipated low capital costs and cash returns... We believe there are several problems with Oklo’s unit economics which render them grossly misleading.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "5858b5ae-0ee5-4b8f-bf3f-cc43238b6fd1", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.8 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "While, admittedly, differences in technology and design complicates any comparison of costs, for reference Oklo’s 50 MWe NOAK total capital cost of $116m... equates to $2,312 / kW, meaningfully below DOE estimates of $3,600 / kW.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "8ddcefad-3c21-4878-a30a-bca670c93312", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "I can't see a scenario where they get to $7,000 / kg and I've been making fuel for 45 years.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "40ec84da-55e9-4de8-9006-8e858549d777", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.22 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "I don't want to slam them... they were goal-seeking [costs]... otherwise it's not viable at all. If they put real numbers of today in there this program would be over.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "9d8cf2c1-81b8-4503-af24-c2ed71d44d90", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.14 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "That [fuel] cost is completely made up from their rear end.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "eb33b452-4209-48ce-b482-182174ac2084", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“That [fuel] cost is completely made up from their rear end.” — Former NRC Commissioner; “I don't want to slam them, I mean I know these people, they did their best, but I think at the end of the day I think when you get to the top... it was as you said - they were goal-seeking [costs]...otherwise it's not viable at all. If they put real numbers of today in there this program would be over.” — Former nuclear fuel cycle expert, International Atomic Energy Agency; “I can't see a scenario where they get to $7,000 / kg and I've been making fuel for 45 years.” — Former Managing Director, Westinghouse Electric - UK Fuel Operations", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-0f20-71ed-bdde-9e5455ebb49f", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Oklo’s Illustrative Unit Economics Are Not Credible", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "47872c5b-79e7-4eba-8808-e26b7b778c3e", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "name": "Villain slide", "slug": "villain-slide", "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "matchId": "31165d5e-08f6-437d-9e03-ba7c0c5f6911", "evidence": "The slide critiques Oklo's unit economics, labeling them as misleading and unsupported by industry experts.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "frameworks": [ { "name": "authority-citation", "slug": null, "matchId": "e600e6a9-c6ca-4055-8fd6-1928ceabbc4e", "evidence": "Uses quotes from former NRC Commissioner, IAEA expert, and Westinghouse MD to build credibility.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 17, "from": 5, "beatId": "c67ecd24-b26a-42ac-ba29-3231edfb3db6", "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster", "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster", "beatName": "The Monster", "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-monster", "evidence": "The document presents various challenges facing Oklo's business model, including regulatory and deployment timelines, cost overruns, and reliability issues.", "position": 0, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Hook", "parentBeatSlug": "hook" } ], "loops": [ { "to": 17, "from": 5, "name": "Cost Of Inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "matchId": "f9431516-147b-457d-af7e-a1bb0fe4f9e4", "evidence": "The document presents various challenges facing Oklo's business model and industry challenges.", "position": 0, "objective": "What are the consequences of Oklo's overly optimistic timelines and business model?", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "confidence": 0.7, "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }