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  "documentTitle": "Oklo Inc. (OKLO)",
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  "presentationDate": "2024-11-01 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide uses a skeptical tone to dismantle the 'economies of series production' thesis for Oklo's business model.",
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      "text": "We think the likelihood of an Aurora microreactor emerging as a preferred option to drive the volumes needed for sustained learning and cost reduction is exceedingly slim.",
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      "text": "However, a mixture of real-world observations and academic studies suggest learning rates in the nuclear industry are modest (if positive at all). A 2004 University of Chicago study on The Economic Future of Nuclear Power found “a plausible range for future learnings rates in the Unites States nuclear industry is 3 to 10 percent...a 10 percent learning rate is aggressive.",
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      "text": "Proponents of SMRs argue they can make up for the lack of scale using modularized, simple reactor designs and drive down costs through mass manufacturing identical units (i.e., economies of series production).",
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      "text": "One glance at recent large nuclear power projects in the United States and France, the two countries with the largest nuclear reactor fleets, reveals that reactors constructed most recently cost more than those constructed decades earlier – an implied negative rate of learning.",
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      "text": "SMR advocates believe manufacturing modules in a factory as opposed to at the reactor site will deliver better unit costs, but establishing nuclear quality supply chains to drive such economies is not straightforward. An industry expert advised us the only example of building a reactor in a factory in the US was when Westinghouse constructed the Vogtle reactor in Georgia. Westinghouse built modules for the Vogtle reactors in a factory in Lake Charles, Louisiana which were then shipped to Georgia where they were supposed to fit together “like pieces of Lego.” Unfortunately, the Lake Charles factory failed to build components to nuclear grade specifications properly, shipped faulty modules to the reactor site, and eventually Westinghouse had to build a dedicated rewelding facility to fix problems.",
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      "text": "Another study by the University of Chicago in 2011 concluded even at this aggressive learning rate, a company would have to manufacture an SMR unit every month for over 4 years before the full benefit of learning would provide levelized costs competitive with the upper end of natural gas-fired generation (~$80 MW/h).",
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      "text": "Now consider that Oklo must drive lower costs through iterative learning without in-house manufacturing capabilities in an industry lacking standardization. Oklo is competing against dozens of other SMR and advanced reactors with varying designs. Culling this herd to a subset for fleet deployment will be crucial within the next ten years to enable larger orderbooks and theoretical NOAK cost benefits to be realized. We think the likelihood of an Aurora microreactor emerging as a preferred option to drive the volumes needed for sustained learning and cost reduction is exceedingly slim.",
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      "text": "Over time, this [Oklo's size and technology] should allow us to reduce cost and asset construction time through purchasing economies of scale, as well as efficiencies that should come from deploying essentially the same asset over time. — Oklo CFO",
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