{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa", "docSlug": "eb80172c6938", "documentTitle": "AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS)", "authorId": "53_Kerrisdale_Capital", "authorName": "Kerrisdale Capital", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2022-09-01 00:00:00", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "pageNumber": 7, "pageCount": 20, "prevPage": 6, "nextPage": 8, "slideType": "villain_critique", "function": "name_villain", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "Uses expert testimony to build a case against the technical viability of the company's product.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "quote_block", "paragraph" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa/7", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa#slide-7", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "During interviews conducted with a range of experts in spacecraft design and manufacturing, we encountered a wall of skepticism regarding numerous aspects of AST's unusual satellite design, chief of which are its structural dynamics and thermal management.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-5376-7749-9ed5-f66f159b01ef", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.59 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Much of the technical due diligence we have come across on investor blogs and social media has focused on the ability of BW3 and BlueBird-1 to establish a communications link with a mobile phone from space.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "c914dc28-5cbd-4002-8abf-78045200a618", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.76 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "During interviews conducted with a range of experts in spacecraft design and manufacturing, we encountered a wall of skepticism regarding numerous aspects of AST's unusual satellite design, chief of which are its structural dynamics and thermal management.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "fe6e3883-2949-4a7d-a9a0-02f67086cebe", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.43 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Some of the preliminary engineering that I've seen did not have the same tolerances I would expect in a zero gravity deployment space environment... you're betting everything on that one demonstration.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "0deea1f3-243f-4b9d-b459-2171769a0d92", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.29 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "The size of the antenna is terrifying... there's only a handful of entities that have deployed a foldable thing in space that big... it's an extremely difficult thing to do.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "1dc0199b-5ad2-4318-8932-ecb9cbf89ac3", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.14 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "The problem with AST SpaceMobile is the structural dynamics of their spacecraft... their knowledge of structural dynamics is so positively infantile; I don't know how they got as far as they did.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "610a4a25-0de8-4c35-82bc-69f825aeaa28", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"The problem with AST SpaceMobile is the structural dynamics of their spacecraft – the way they intend to build a giant phased array antenna is really poorly thought out...their knowledge of structural dynamics is so positively infantile; I don't know how they got as far as they did. I think their approach to making a giant antenna just won't work. I think even if you could talk directly to a handset from space, they wouldn't be able to do it.\" — Physicist and Former Senior Engineer, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory; \"The size of the antenna is terrifying...there’s only a handful of entities that have deployed a foldable thing in space that big and they’re NASA and intelligence entities...it’s an extremely difficult thing to do and it’s also more or less impossible to accurately test on the ground.\" — Former Director of Engineering at SpaceX, led team of 150 engineers across multiple disciplines; \"Some of the preliminary engineering that I’ve seen did not have the same tolerances I would expect in a zero gravity deployment space environment and the number of single point failures in the articulation on deployment; all of those factors...talking about risk to the company, you’re betting everything on that one demonstration...all of that is riding on a hundred different opportunities for the phased array to not deploy.\" — Former Director of Supply Chain for leading defense prime who reviewed engineering designs for the phased arrays of BW3 and BlueBird-1", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-5376-7749-9ed5-f9cffd3d653f", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Design and Deployment Challenges Pose Existential Risk", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "c9715b33-d901-4964-814a-5933eaece1c7", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "authority-citation", "slug": null, "matchId": "e395f332-8bbf-47d1-97d2-0324e88e2be1", "evidence": "Uses quotes from NASA, SpaceX, and defense industry experts to build credibility for the critique.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 14, "from": 7, "beatId": "9a11c370-b4cf-49e1-805e-ba92c4aa9610", "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster", "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster", "beatName": "The Monster", "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-monster", "evidence": "Detailed critique of AST SpaceMobile Inc.'s technical limitations, design and deployment challenges, and inflated market claims", "position": 0, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Hook", "parentBeatSlug": "hook" } ], "loops": [ { "to": 14, "from": 7, "name": "Cost Of Inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "matchId": "83110eb4-9dda-40a8-927b-7907bc525551", "evidence": "The document highlights the risks and limitations of AST SpaceMobile Inc.'s business model and technological capabilities", "position": 0, "objective": "What are the consequences of investing in AST SpaceMobile Inc.?", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "confidence": 0.7, "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }