{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa", "docSlug": "eb80172c6938", "documentTitle": "AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS)", "authorId": "53_Kerrisdale_Capital", "authorName": "Kerrisdale Capital", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2022-09-01 00:00:00", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "pageNumber": 4, "pageCount": 20, "prevPage": 3, "nextPage": 5, "slideType": "executive_summary", "function": "summarize", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "The slide uses bolded action-oriented headers for each paragraph to summarize key points of the investment thesis.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa/4", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa#slide-4", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "AST is bleeding cash and execution has been absurdly poor, even for a SPAC.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-5376-7749-9ed3-ef21002728c0", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.085, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.123 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Fundamental design and engineering concerns surround AST's spacecraft. Interviews with a wide range of experts in satellite design, supply chain management, and manufacturing yielded overwhelming skepticism regarding key aspects of BW3.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "1bcc1e19-1568-4df2-b8ff-44f0414e559e", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.085, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.533 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Confidence in MOUs as a competitive moat is misplaced. Most Memoranda of Understanding (or MOUs) promoted by the company, and cited inaccurately as securing an unassailable competitive moat by retail investors, are little more than non-exclusive.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "3b729833-ce93-49eb-9352-239ffe92c711", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.125, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.635 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "AST is bleeding cash and execution has been absurdly poor, even for a SPAC. AST originally claimed cash proceeds from the SPAC transaction would be sufficient to fund operations through the launch of 20 Phase 1 satellites.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "6b5dabe4-780a-470d-9851-205101e57fed", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "SpaceX and Apple pose growing competitive threat. Having two of the most innovative, resource-rich companies on the planet offer D2D solutions within the U.S. for free - even if those initial services are very basic in nature.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "7b49bbdd-2664-40bf-a2d6-54ec6e28ab22", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.105, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.327 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Expect BlueBird-1 program to witness further rising costs and delay. BlueBird-1, the satellite which underpins AST's planned global constellation, is running 2 years behind schedule and checks indicate that challenges continue to mount.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "ac8a14dd-5169-4fac-8e71-77c10f57021d", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.085, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.225 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "AST will likely struggle to provide reliable service. According to analyses performed by a leading expert and author of textbooks on RF engineering and satellite communications, BW3 may be able to connect to a cellphone when conditions are perfect.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "fff3f733-af1d-406e-84b4-e54a270d8da6", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "According to a supply chain consultant who reviewed an AST bid package for parts critical to unfolding the array, AST's engineering was so \"immature\" that his highly qualified client no-bid the business.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-5376-7749-9ed3-f039941fbbab", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.025, "w": 0.265, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.093 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Executive Summary", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "5814a109-6f83-4e18-baef-9e8113e33330", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive-summary", "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "matchId": "016f96f3-e623-4a61-9ecc-e8b9e082b474", "evidence": "AST will likely struggle to provide reliable service. According to analyses performed by a leading expert and author of textbooks on RF engineering and satellite communications, BW3 may be able to connect to only a single phone at a time.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }