{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa", "docSlug": "eb80172c6938", "documentTitle": "AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS)", "authorId": "53_Kerrisdale_Capital", "authorName": "Kerrisdale Capital", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2022-09-01 00:00:00", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "pageNumber": 12, "pageCount": 20, "prevPage": 11, "nextPage": 13, "slideType": "villain_critique", "function": "name_villain", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 8, "notes": "The slide uses a quote from a former employee to undermine the company's reliance on SpaceX's Starship.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.95, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa/12", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa#slide-12", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "There's only two problems: 1) Starship has encountered repeated setbacks and delays, and 2) SpaceX is a competitor which has no real incentive to be all that cooperative with AST.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-5376-7749-9ed4-ac117a007e86", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.75 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "BlueBird-1 is envisioned to be a ~400 sq meter phased array with a solar panel power generation north of 100 kW. Gallium arsenide (GaAs) solar cells are commonly used in satellite construction because of their exceptional light absorption and low weight.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "0e6943fe-12a6-4f44-841f-c3928f51936a", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "While AST bulls rushed to applaud SpaceX's recent announcement of a D2D service as a sign of validation for AST's technology, it seems few, if any, are aware of just how reliant AST's cost projections may be on cheap launch services from its new competitor.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "733f7cfe-ab98-4c2a-a859-3ffc3a363ea1", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.195 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "What AST is banking on now is SpaceX is building this new launch vehicle called Starship... the cost of that launch vehicle is going to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars each too, but somehow Abel and AST think they can get the price down, that SpaceX and Elon Musk are going to negotiate with them when they are actually a competitor.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "pull-quote", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "f85517da-e7f1-4578-a021-ab6a3b0b59cb", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "What AST is banking on now is SpaceX is building this new launch vehicle called Starship... the cost of that launch vehicle is going to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars each too, but somehow Abel and AST think they can get the price down, that SpaceX and Elon Musk are going to negotiate with them when they are actually a competitor. — Former AST SpaceMobile employee", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-5376-7749-9ed4-b35966ae7991", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.715 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Solar Panels Are Prohibitively Expensive", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "a3f56ec9-6c23-44d0-a0f8-622022c46242", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.155 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Launch Costs and Availability Are Not Going According to Plan", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "ead2a8ec-8542-4f43-a635-fd8ed5ce4e67", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "antagonist-introduction", "slug": null, "matchId": "1ae5a43c-c771-40a2-9731-56310704f1eb", "evidence": "The slide frames SpaceX/Starship as a competitor with no incentive to help AST, undermining the company's core business model.", "confidence": 0.85 } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 14, "from": 7, "beatId": "9a11c370-b4cf-49e1-805e-ba92c4aa9610", "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster", "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster", "beatName": "The Monster", "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-monster", "evidence": "Detailed critique of AST SpaceMobile Inc.'s technical limitations, design and deployment challenges, and inflated market claims", "position": 0, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Hook", "parentBeatSlug": "hook" } ], "loops": [ { "to": 14, "from": 7, "name": "Cost Of Inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "matchId": "83110eb4-9dda-40a8-927b-7907bc525551", "evidence": "The document highlights the risks and limitations of AST SpaceMobile Inc.'s business model and technological capabilities", "position": 0, "objective": "What are the consequences of investing in AST SpaceMobile Inc.?", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "confidence": 0.7, "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }