{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa",
  "docSlug": "eb80172c6938",
  "documentTitle": "AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS)",
  "authorId": "53_Kerrisdale_Capital",
  "authorName": "Kerrisdale Capital",
  "documentKindSlug": "research-note",
  "documentKindLabel": "Research note",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2022-09-01 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 10,
  "pageCount": 20,
  "prevPage": 9,
  "nextPage": 11,
  "slideType": "villain_critique",
  "function": "diagnose_problem",
  "density": "balanced",
  "nDataPoints": 4,
  "notes": "Kerrisdale Capital research note criticizing AST SpaceMobile.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "paragraph"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa/10",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-28769ac23caa#slide-10",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Can AST do it in a way that people expect their cellphones to work and how AST itself promotes its technology solution? Not according to the guy who wrote a textbook on it.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-5376-7749-9ed4-61a429960fef",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.565,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.138
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "To answer the question of what kind of signal quality BW3 and the 1st block of Phase 1 can be expected to provide, we solicited the expertise of a highly regarded satellite communications expert...",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "1ba8185d-50b5-4157-b910-8fd7439862ab",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.778
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "In December 2020, AST stated its goal was to have 20 BlueBird-1s in orbit by the end of 2022. This would then be followed by 90 more by the end of 2023 to begin generating meaningful EBITDA ($130m...)",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "9d88494c-fa68-4ac3-8741-7e9f2d9fc7dd",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "We anticipate that our next launch after BlueWalker 3 would be a BlueBird satellite... — AST Management",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Authority citation",
      "toolSlug": "authority-citation",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-5376-7749-9ed4-66a1a2008eb9",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.025,
        "w": 0.61,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.701
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "BlueBird-1 Delays and Phase 1 Changes Raise Red Flags",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "299b4aa8-a0e3-41fe-b37f-f66f43155c00",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.025,
        "w": 0.53,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.094
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "SpaceMobile Service Will Not Work as Hyped",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "55255483-6c3e-4995-9834-6cb81911e4de",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.51,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.744
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "BlueBird-1 Development Likely to Fall Further Behind",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "subtitle",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "789638be-d218-4ed8-8091-3381907bcb39",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 14,
      "from": 7,
      "beatId": "9a11c370-b4cf-49e1-805e-ba92c4aa9610",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "The Monster",
      "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-monster",
      "evidence": "Detailed critique of AST SpaceMobile Inc.'s technical limitations, design and deployment challenges, and inflated market claims",
      "position": 0,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Hook",
      "parentBeatSlug": "hook"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 14,
      "from": 7,
      "name": "Cost Of Inaction",
      "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction",
      "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation",
      "matchId": "83110eb4-9dda-40a8-927b-7907bc525551",
      "evidence": "The document highlights the risks and limitations of AST SpaceMobile Inc.'s business model and technological capabilities",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "What are the consequences of investing in AST SpaceMobile Inc.?",
      "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}