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  "documentTitle": "Carvana Co. (CVNA)",
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      "text": "Unrealistic, 3x higher than KMX, above even leading growth tech companies.... and over a very long time for a highly levered subprime exposed cyclical business",
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      "text": "Implied stock price: $70",
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      "text": "During our research, we interviewed a former executive at both ADESA and CarMax, who was flabbergasted at the level of inefficiency and unsophistication he found in Carvana's reconditioning centers...",
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      "text": "You were copying CarMax's playbook when it came to reconditioning for Carvana? [Kerrisdale] Absolutely. Literally, I had to laugh because I had documents in my possession where if you took the logo off, it was the exact same verbiage, the exact same formatting on a page - it was kind of scary.",
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      "text": "“Absolutely. Literally, I had to laugh because I had documents in my possession where if you took the logo off, it was the exact same verbiage, the exact same formatting on a page – it was kind of scary.” — Former ADESA Director and Operations Manager at CarMax, 20+ years auto industry operations experience",
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      "text": "Used vehicle SAAR (mm) 40 Consistent with pre-pandemic used vehicle SAAR (1) Market share 2.50% 2.5x current market share 2030E Retail Units 1,000,000 2023A retail units 312,847 CAGR 18% Unrealistic, 3x higher than KMX Years 7 ...and over a very long time for a highly levered subprime exposed cyclical business Retail ASP $24,870 Inline with 2022 pandemic level ASPs Retail revenue 24,870 Total revenue 35,028 EBITDA per retail unit $2,700 2x current EBITDA per retail unit Total EBITDA ($mm) $2,700 Margin 8% Inline with lower end of long-term EBITDA margin target Assumed multiple 16x Inline with EV / '26E EBITDA multiples for mid-teens rev growth tech companies. Target EV 42,120 Discount rate 12% NPV of Target EV $19,053 Implied market cap $14,135 Implied stock price $70",
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      "text": "What's Embedded in Carvana's Share Price?",
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      "text": "Copying the CarMax Playbook",
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