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  "documentTitle": "Astra Space, Inc. (ASTR)",
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  "authorName": "Kerrisdale Capital",
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  "presentationDate": "2021-12-01 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "Includes qualitative testimonials from industry experts to validate the skepticism regarding Astra's launch projections.",
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      "text": "At less than 600 satellites, the entire non-captive TAM for launch is easily supported by less than 100 total launches.",
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      "text": "Total Addressable Non-GEO Satellites: 587",
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      "text": "Below we walk through an analysis to determine a more refined view of the market opportunity for Astra as it strives to establish daily launch in 2025.",
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      "text": "At less than 600 satellites, the entire non-captive TAM for launch is easily supported by less than 100 total launches. SpaceX rideshare recently set a record for 134 satellites on a single mission.",
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      "text": "How should one think about the TAM for a new entrant like Astra? The above is a global forecast that makes no adjustment for constellations that already have a committed launch provider...",
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      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "I laugh at that number...There's no way they are doing 300 launches by 2025; by 2035 it would still be a stretch.",
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      "text": "We are, all around in the industry, in the same spot. Even within Astra and at [our small launch company], I'm looking at [1/10th Astra's number] rockets, and we are freaking out – are we really going to have enough customers for this?",
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      "text": "I laugh at that number...There's no way they are doing 300 launches by 2025; by 2035 it would still be a stretch. — Senior Engineer, launch broker; We are, all around in the industry, in the same spot. Even within Astra and at [our small launch company], I'm looking at [1/10th Astra's number] rockets, and we are freaking out – are we really going to have enough customers for this? — Senior Engineer, small launch provider",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Kerrisdale analysis and Northern Sky Research, Global Satellite Manufacturing and Launch Markets 11th Edition, July 2021.",
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      "text": "Total Non-GEO Satellite Launches: 2,255; Less: NA Communications: (851); Less: 90% Asia (China): (792); Less: 20% of Europe (Russia): (25); Total Addressable Non-GEO Satellites: 587",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Astra 2025E Launch TAM",
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